Difference between revisions of "Interview 2 : Bobo Lo, Senior Research Fellow at Centre for European Reform: London"

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(New page: Interview - Bobo Lo 13/10/09 Questions: Internal conflict within the ruling party, is it likely that there will be a fracture from within? • Putin will remain the main man •...)
 
(Replacing page with 'Interview - Dr Bobo Lo 13/10/09 Dr Lo declined to be quoted and we have agreed that the questions will not be published on the wiki page. We thank him for his perspec...')
 
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Interview - Bobo Lo 13/10/09  
Interview - Dr Bobo Lo 13/10/09  
Questions:
Internal conflict within the ruling party, is it likely that there will be a fracture from within?


• Putin will remain the main man
Dr Lo declined to be quoted and we have agreed that the questions will not be published on the wiki page. We thank him for his perspective and have used the interview as well as many other sources to aid us in writing the scenarios.
• Will play a central role – could be negative or positive but will remain central
• Some comparison can be made to Deng Xiao Ping
• Most of the elite currently in power owe their status to Putin
• There are some differences between Putin and Medvedev
• However  there is also wishful thinking in Western commentary that there are tensions within the regime
• Putin finds it useful to have a soft, benign face in Medvedev representing the country
• Some doubt as to whether Medvedev has the capacity to carry out his initiatives
• Prime minister is where the power lies
• Presidency is not effective
 
Example: Putin is in China today, he seems to be the key power figure.
 
Scenario:
 
A possible scenario where things could become unstable is if the economic situation continues to decline, causing political and social instability. If in addition Putin’s health deteriorates some parties may feel they are able to act in order to consolidate power. However most people in powerful positions have too much to lose and are quite risk averse.
 
Does Medvedev have enough of a power base to challenge Putin, and if so, what could happen?
 
• Not enough of a power base to challenge Putin
• Putin finds him useful
• It is plausible that people may look to Medvedev as alternate source of power in the future but currently this is very unlikely
 
 
How likely is the development of any legitimate and credible opposition?
• If economic and social conditions deteriorate, if senior people in the government feel Putin is losing his grip, the idea of some opposition is possible. If there is opposition it may push for change.
• Can go either authoritarian or liberalization/democratization
• More accountable government
• More liberal more modern system
• Opposition has no popular credibility
 
Nord stream pipeline – is it likely to divide Eastern and Western Europe? Are the fears founded?
Russian has 3 motivations in external energy politics:
 
• Profit for country and individuals
• Wants to be a reliable energy supplier, want to be seen as reliable energy supplier
• Geopolitical tool to project power and influence, control energy production and infrastructure, more than 80% goes through Ukraine currently. Russia cares about what Europe thinks. Ukraine unstable and dysfunctional and can cause major disruptions supply into EU.
Russia’s policy towards EU, US – clarification.
Russia still thinks in Cold War terms. They do not believe in the global village and tend to have zero-sum thinking (a win for you is a loss for me). Russia is still dealing with the loss of empire and super power status.
In reality, Russia is not a real player in the G20. An example of this is the summit where bi-lateral talks with Obama counted more for them than the G-20 talks.
Their policy seems reactive; they have an idea of what they don’t like but no real solutions or proposals on how to improve policies. There is a lot of posturing involved in their foreign policy, talk big but cannot deliver. Contrast to China who talks modestly about being a global leader. They do not want to press this point because as a global leader they would need to take responsibility on some key issue such as pollution and environment.
Conflict with China?
Highly unlikely, Russia is still in possession of a large nuclear arsenal, which still acts as a deterrent.
 
How influential is Russia’s military and is there a chance it will be involved in politics?
Russia’s military has not achieved anything. Lost Afghanistan, lost 1st Chechen war, “won” 2nd Chechen war but only did this installing a proxy government.
There has been some reshuffling in the forces but no real change/restructure. The military has always been subordinate to the Party and has had very little involvement in political affairs.
The military is no longer a monolith however it may be in the future. Traditionally, the military has had a small role in Russian political development.
Example: The army stayed neutral in the failed coup in 1991.
What is preventing Russia from investing in its own oil and gas infrastructure?
Russia does not want to take the risk and finance the development. They are letting other countries take the risk of developing infrastructure and technology. Another reason is that they currently do not have the money to invest and Russian oil and gas majors are short on money and in debt.
If the EU diversifies its supply of energy, where will it leave Russia?
 
It is very unlikely that the EU will act as a coherent block. Some countries will continue to deal with Russia on a case by case basis. Russia will continue to play geopolitical games.
Miscellaneous Ideas
• Revolutionary change in Russia has been done top down. Both revolutions have been elite. Mass uprising of the people is unlikely.
• During Putin years Russia wanted to get as much oil out of the ground as quickly as possible while the price was still high, they were not thinking long term.
• China is using more coal 70% comes from coal. Gas will be small. Getting gas from central Asia and Africa. China has a very diversified portfolio of suppliers (over 30). They are unlikely to rely solely on Russia for energy.
• Students overseas coming back to Russia. Better quality of governance needed and change may begin to take place with new, better educated students may begin to organically change the country.
• High energy and commodity prices breed political complacency; Russia draws the wrong conclusions Putin’s government and less liberal western ideas have aided the development of Russia into a power. This is what is sold to the people through media and other propaganda methods. In fact Putin’s government has had a considerable amount of luck due to very high oil prices.
What effect will climate change have on Russia?
Mass migration is unlikely. Northern China is a desert – massive water problems, per capita use is less than sub-Saharan Africa. No flood is likely.
Leasing/selling land to Chinese?
Unlikely as Russia values its territory too much, any idea of a lesser/smaller Russia would not go down well with Kremlin.
 
Breakaway regions – how likely?
Russia is a country with very strong tradition of centralised power, naturally allergic to regions acquiring too much autonomy. Weakened centre will look to hold the country together.
A stronger Russia?
Possible that a stronger Russia will increase presence in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, parts of Ukraine (Crimea). Possibility that these will become parts of Russia. Belorussia is a possibility too.

Latest revision as of 16:48, 17 October 2009

Interview - Dr Bobo Lo 13/10/09

Dr Lo declined to be quoted and we have agreed that the questions will not be published on the wiki page. We thank him for his perspective and have used the interview as well as many other sources to aid us in writing the scenarios.

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