How will changes in the demographics of the (expanding) EU impact mobility?

=== Owner's Research ===

Conclusions: As the average age of the European will increase and labor force participation decreases with age, both work-related and recreational mobility will be affected. As the ratio between workers en non-workers will change, the number of daily commuters will be affected as well. The impact of the aging population on recreational mobility is unclear, as their are uncertainties around wealth and health of elderly people in 2020, two important factors that drive mobility of elderly people.

Supporting Evidence:

"Aging European Populations may threaten Living Standards and Prosperity"

"Europe is getting older. By 2025, one in five Europeans will be over 65 years old, up from 16 percent today. The median age will increase from 42 to 51 in Italy and from 42 to 47 in Germany. Across the continent, working-age populations will stagnate or shrink, while the number of retirees will explode"

The wealth of Europe declines: In 1998, 21 percent of Europeans were aged 65 or older. By 2025, this proportion will have grown to 33 percent; by 2050, it will be 47 percent.3 With fewer working-age citizens, who create most savings, and more retired citizens,who tend to spend their savings, the absolute level of savings will plunge across most of Europe."

source: McKinsey Global Institute, The Graying of Europe, April 2005.

"Labor force participation declines with age, especially after age 50", source Population Reference Bureau
<br? Americans Living Longer, Not Necessarily Healthier Lives, source Population Reference Bureau

"Our life styles, cultural values and norms determine to a large extent our choice of transport modes, the times we travel and our travel motives. Traffic and transport will increase, especially in urban areas, as a result of demographic developments, households becoming smaller, changes in commuting and the inflow of immigrants. The contribution of socio-demographic factors to the increase in car mobility is estimated to be large, viz. about 50%. The other contributory factors are wealth and car ownership (together about 25%), and the improvement in the infrastructure and developments in town and country planning (also together about 25%).",source: "De invloed van sociale en culturele factoren op mobiliteit en verkeersveiligheid", SWOV 2005

"Between 2005 and 2010 the first large group of baby boomers will retire (early), and this will continue until about 2030. This generation has a high car and driving licence possession of both men and women (driving licences approximately 90%). The number of journeys concerning health care, service and recreation is increasing." source: "De invloed van sociale en culturele factoren op mobiliteit en verkeersveiligheid", SWOV 2005

=== Non-owner's Research ===

The next society[1]
Nov 1st 2001 - From The Economist print edition

Tomorrow is closer than you think. Peter Drucker* explains how it will differ from today, and what needs to be done to prepare for it