Demand for hospital care

From ScenarioThinking
Revision as of 19:28, 4 October 2005 by Jsweeney (talk | contribs)
Jump to navigation Jump to search

Demand For Hospital Care - Research Questions

  • Demographics, double aging
  Healthcare spending is on an upward track partly because as nations become wealthier,
  consumers demand they spend more on healthcare (about ½% increase in healthcare cost for
  each percent increase in wealth)
Many nations will be looking down the barrel of an exploding cannon. In 1999, working taxpayers outnumber non-working pensioners in the developed world (North America, Japan, Europe, Australia and New Zealand) by 3 to 1. However, by 2030, the ratio will fall to 1.5 to 1.
The post-war baby boomers who have been an egocentric and demanding group at each stage of their lives are now becoming the key healthcare consumers, purchasing care for their own aging bodies, as well as for their frail parents.
  • Consequence of life style for demand
  Consumers are more informed (internet) want their own healthcare (‘I want it my way’)
Tomorrow’s consumers may be adversarial, fickle and decidedly impatient.
Individuals are better educated about everything, including healthcare.
Patients believed no one was on their side – they became engaged in their healthcare decision-making because they felt abandoned by the system.
Consumerism creates contradictions (more informed and healthy people versus obese)
Consumerism breeds branding of hospitals and individual doctors and creates the want for more private hospitals in the Netherlands;
  • More demanding/empowered patients?
  Empowered employers will demand better healthcare for their workers. 
As consumers in developed countries dig deeper into their pockets to fund their healthcare needs, they will become even more demanding consumers who are sensitive to value and hungrier for information.
A common vision of some healthcare futurists is that consumers won’'t have to decipher the healthcare world alone. They’'ll hire intermediaries to handle their healthcare needs. Whether these intermediaries will be brokers, agents or nurses remains to be seen. Consumers may pay for them, or in some cases, employers may do so.


  • Pandemics?
   Aids
Bird Flu
Obesity - Diabetes II