Difference between revisions of "China becoming the largest economy"

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[[China becoming the largest economy]]
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==Description:==
 
Over the next 50 years, Brazil, Russia, India and China—the BRICs economies—could
become a much larger force in the world economy. Within the BRIC countries, China will
become the most prominent becoming the largest economy in the world. Goldman Sachs has
already predicted in 2005 that China will be the biggest economy in 2041 surpassing
the United States. However more recent research from the Head of Asia research at ING
Bank in Singapore is already predicting that if China continues it's average growth
rate in the past 20 years, it will overtake the U.S in 20 years, this would be roughly
2030, 11 years earlier than the 2041 Goldman Sachs has predicted. The US will become
the second largest economy, closely follwed by India.
 
==Enablers:==
 
1. Stable Macro Environment
 
2. Strong and Stable political institutions
 
3. Openess to trade and foreign direct investments
 
4. High levels of education
 
==Inhibitors:==
 
1. Unstable political environment, minority issues
 
2. Unhealthy financial institutions (Not commercial driven)
 
3. Working population decreasing (one child policy)
 
4. More demand than supply for metals, grains and fuel to support the economy
 
==Paradigms:==
 
1. Change of world power, China is already increasingly influencing the countries in the "new" emerging markets to secure their need for metals, grains, energy sources. China becoming more powerfull in international organizations like WTO, United Nations etc)
 
2. By becoming the biggest economy China will increasingly need to develop and growth their energy needs in order to keep keep up with the economic growth
 
3. Renminbi becoming the main currency instead of USD, increasing influence of RMB in the global economy. (e.g. Price quotes of oil will be in RMB instead of USD)
 
4. China will become more active in climate change talks. China will push the current
developed countries to comply to the Kyoto Protocol. China is also part of the Asia
Partnership on Clean Development on Climate (APP) which will become more important
in this new era
 
==Timing:==
 
2007: China's economy overtook Germany's economy, becoming the third largest economy
 
2015: China's economy will be bigger than Japan, becoming the second largest economy
 
2041: China's economy will be bigger than US, becoming the largest economy
 
==Web Resources:==
 
1. http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/book/99-dreaming.pdf
 
2. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a9P1peF6QeOg

Latest revision as of 14:08, 31 May 2010

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