Brian Chiu's learning log

Butterfly Effect

Can we predict the future? What if things might turn out to be what we expected? What scenario thinking or system thinking can do on this perspective? As the world represents a complexity system in Butterfly Effect theory. Any small things could result in huge variations in the long term behavior. It's almost impossible to predict the future only with the historical data. But, isn't there any way to deal with this situation? After the whole month experience of this course, I would say at least I have more insight about this topic.

System Thinking

The most useful lession I've learned is that scenario thinking actually is an iterative process from single to complex and then to simple. At the beginning, we suppose the future as a matter of course. The internet TV will develop bigger and bigger, the customers will get more chooses for the on-demand entertainment solutions. So we can say the future runs at only oneway. However, things do not go well as we expect. Alternative new technology may rise and change our life and business world completely; Govenrnment reglation could become the bottleneck of the development of Internet TV; User's expectation varies from appointment viewing, random selection to interactive way; the conflict in IP leagel aspect may result in the recession of it as well. All of which add the uncertainty to the current situation and the future become plausible to us.

By the help of system mapping and driving forces, we can figure out all entities in current circumstance and therefore understand the relationship between them. Thirdly, finding the key uncertainty and developing the scenarios give us a simplified future. Under certain assumption, we can see the way before us and where the destination is. So we get our simple future.

Methodology

Convergence

Assumption

Action Plan

Brainstorming give you a bright view

Messy is good help you get whole picture However, solving one problem almost always others

Creative Thinking

Best Strategy