Brian Chiu's learning log

Butterfly Effect Butterfly Effect

Logic Process

The most useful discovery for me is that scenario thinking actually is an iterative process from single to complex and then to simple. At the beginning, we assume the future as a matter of course. The internet TV will develop bigger and bigger, the customers will get more chooses for the on demand entertainment solutions. So we can say the future runs at only oneway. However, things do not go well as we expect. Alternative new technology may rise and change our life and business world completely; Govenrnment reglation could become the bottleneck of the development of Internet TV; user's expectation remain the same from appointment viewing, random selection to interactive way; the conflict in IP leagel aspect may result in the recession of it as well. All of which add the uncertainty to the current situation and the future become plausible to us.

By the help of system mapping and driving forces, we can figure out all entities in current circumstance and therefore understand the relationship between them. Thirdly, finding the key uncertainty and developing the scenarios give us a simplified future. Under certain assumption, we can see the way before us and where the destination is. So we get our simple future.

Methodology

Convergence

Assumption

Action Plan

Messy is good help you get whole picture

Creative Thinking

Best Strategy