Energy crisis in Asia

Description:

Economic growth in China have contributed to world economy, but some problems emerged as the result of the rapid growth in China. One of the most serious problems is energy problem. Recently, consumption of electricity and gas for automobiles is rapidly increasing in China because of rapid industrialization and increase of automobiles. Actually, supply of electricity was limited in 26 provinces in China in 2004. It is said that China will face serious shortage of electricity in Shanghai area in summer in 2005. North Korea always falls into obscurity of electricity, which drives the country risky bet with the rest of the world. The crisis will trigger many issues not only in Asia but also in the world.

- Slowing down chinese economy resulting in slowing down world economy - Higher price of energy (oil, natural gas, uranium, etc) - Higher tension on territorial dispute among Asian countries to secure potential oil region (South China Sea, northern territories between Japan and Russia), etc - Bad effect on supply of goods from China to the world

Enablers:

- Development of new energy source around China

- Amicable solution on potential oil region in South China Sea and then development of the area

- Successful govermental regulation for rapid growth of energy consumption in China

- Pupularization of hybrid or fuel-cell car in China, U.S, and other countries

- Amicable solution in Middle East

Inhibitors:

- Clash of Asian countries on territorial dispute on potential energy sources

- Failure of regulation on energy consumption and then sudden energy crisis in China

- Failure of Middle East peace efforts

- Failure of development of alternative energy

Paradigms:

If energy crisis happens in the worst manner, its effect to the world cannot be unmeasurable. Global downturn in stockmarket could occur with the bottleneck of energy problem. No companies will invest future technology for internet or wireless telecommunication. Governments cannot support further development of internet because securement of energy source becomes their top priority.

Timing:

'90s Chinese governmenr revised its policy, self-sufficiency of energy, because of rapid increase of energy consumption in China

'94 U.S and North Korea agreed on KEDO

'

Web Resources:

[The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization ]

Guessing Games from the Economist http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3400241&subjectID=348918&emailauth=%2527%2528%2540%252E7%2525%255C%255C%253B3%2540%255C%2520%250A

Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War from Stanford University http://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/zitzewitz/Research/usingmarkets.pdf

How Information Markets Could Change the Policy World from the Brookings Institute http://www.aei-brookings.org/admin/authorpdfs/page.php?id=1019