The future of communication in 2015
Introduction
Below are the results of the scenario planning process of group 5 of class RSM EMBA05 (Giuseppe Bruni, Graham King, Erik Lousberg, Jeroen Plink and Rolando Ranauro) on the following subject:
The future of communication in 2015
The choice for this subject was made when discussing the intensifying battle unfolding in The Netherlands between the incumbent telephony provider, KPN and the cable operator, UPC.
Both companies enjoy a monopoly in their core product offerings – that is to say telephony, in the case of KPN and TV/Video, in the case of UPC – and were originally content to restrict their efforts solely to such offerings. Gradually, however, rapid technological advancements enabled both companies to compete across multiple products - TV/Video, the Internet and telephony (fixed and mobile). A recent development was UPC’s attack on KPN’s fixed line telephony business through VoIP (voice over IP). This was the first step in the rapid convergence of all technologies to the IP network. KPN have responded through an attack on UPC’s core product by investing heavily in TV/Video over the Internet (IPTV). How will the battle between the companies now develop?
The discussion on this battle sparked a discussion on the wider subject of communication: how are people going to communicate in 10 years, will there be a drive towards more working from home, what does "always connected" mean in practice for peoples lives, what does greater connectivity mean for work-life balance, will the increased connectivity drive people towards more local networks or will there be a drive for globalisation. The key to being able to answer these questions is the drawing of a considered conclusion on how the communications industry will develop over the medium term – say the next 10 years.
Scenarios on Communication in 2015
Two main uncertainties are going to drive the future: the type of network and the level of connectivity.
The network (internet, gsm, satellite, wifi,..) can develop from the today structure to completely free environment, based on open source software and unique standard protocol. Or it can transform to series of noumerous closed protected local networks with access restricion.
The level of connectivity is related to the type and level of connection among humans and among humans and media leading to two possible exteme: the triumph of virtuality or the implosion to reality.
| Gaia | Elite Islands | |
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| Back to reality | Fear |
With this vision four scenario's are defined:
Gaia: Open network, unlimited human borders
Elite Islands: Closed network, unlimited human borders
Fear: Closed network, limited human borders
Never ready (Opposition): Open network, limited human borders.