Decrease in investments in R&D
Description:
Following discussion as part of the European Lisboa conference (2000), the government of The Netherlands has set itself a target to become one of the most competitive and dynamic knowledge economies of the world. In order to realize this goal, the government wants to increase R&D spending to 3% of GDP vs. current spending of 1.8% only (2004). Besides the availability of sufficiently skilled technological employees, the main drivers of the succesful realisation of this goal comprises the sufficient investment in R&D by both public and private research institutions and the efficient and successful cooperation between thse public and private instituations.
Currently (2004) the combination of public and private R&D spending in NL is estimated at c. €9bn in 2004. The amount of private research is estimated at €4bn and is concentrated within a Top 7 of multinational companies: in total these corporates provide for 65% of the total private R&D investments in The Netherlands. Within these Top7 corporates, Philips accounts for €1billion.
Should Philips and/or the other Top7 corporates decide to relocate their R&D to another country, this would thus result in a significant blow to the R&D efforts (in total estimated at c. €9b in 2004) and thus technology development capabilities for the Low Lands.
Enablers:
Increase in (perceptions of) career opportunities for techies; More flexible education programs: bachelor for technological students with business focus, masters for truly technological students; Increased acceptance of foreigners to technological degrees combined with easy access to visa and working permits after graduation
Inhibitors:
Declining quality and quantity of technological universities; Limited career perspectives for technological students; Rigid university programs, with limited potential to select business or scientific program early on in degree; Restrictive student and work visa conditions;
Paradigms:
Declining numbers of technological savy employees will hamper the ability of The netherlands to be innovative and to improve productivity in an international context. This in turn will result in a declining competitive position of The Netherlands, specifically when ongoing globalisation will continue to result in fiercer competition from low-cost countries. Furthermore, a declining availability of a technologically savy workforce may result in the fact that existing companies with strong R&D focus will consider moving their R&D activities outside The Netherlands to other countries with sufficient technological resources. This would further deteriorate the Dutch ability to be Innovative and Productive.
Experts:
Onderwijs Cultuur & Wetenschap, 'Wetenschaps en Technologie indicatoren 2003' Economische Zaken, 2004 EU, Innovation Scoreboard 2001
Timing:
The existing downward trend is ongoing since early 1990's. Since the Lisboa Agenda in 2000 little progress has been made. No clear estimates appear available as to the anticipated number of technological savy students and employees; nor have detailed estimates been made as to the technies need by what date.
[===Web Resources:=== Retrieved from "http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Decrease_of_Technology_Students"
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