Decline in Ethnic Integration in The Netherlands

Description:

1.1 The % of non-Western allochtones as part of the Dutch population is forecast to increase from 10.4% (2004) to 16.6% in 2050
1.2 This allochtone growth has historically been concentrated in Big4 cities: the % of allochtones in these cities increased from 36% (1995) to 43% (2004)
1.3 Within Big4 cities, concentration and segregation of non-Western allochtone neighbourhoods has increased
1.4 Consequently and if this pattern continues, the anticipated growth in % of non-Western allochtones can be expected to result in growing concentration and segregation in the Big4 cities. We conclude that this will thus result in a decline in ethnic integration.

The majority of non-Western allochtones is living in the Randstad, i.e. mainly in Big4 cities. The overall percentage of allochtones in Big 4 cities has grown from 36% (1995) to 43%, of which 31 percentage-points are non-Western allochtones (2003) {Forum.nl}. Furthermore, the ethnic concentration of non-Western allochtones within these cities has increased: in 2004, c. 10% of neighbourhoods in Big 4 cities comprises > 50% non-Western allochtones {CPB}.

Enablers:

• Availaility of low-cost housing for immigrants in non-black neighbourhoods
  
• Dutch Language courses and social training for immigrants to enable communication with non-immigrants
  
• Legislation to prevent Asylum and economic migration (both are actually expected to decline over time)
  

Inhibitors:

• Family reunions and higher birth rates of allochtones from poorer/rural areas with low education levels nad low incomes
  
• Limited job opportunities nor training/education opportunities to grow and live beyond segregated neighbourhoods
  

Paradigms:

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Experts:

• Software developers
• Business ICT managers

Timing:

No information is needed to understand this driving force.