Decline in Ethnic Integration in The Netherlands

Description:

1.1 The % of non-Western allochtones as part of the Dutch population is forecast to increase from 10.4% (2004) to 16.6% in 2050 1.2 This allochtone growth has historically been concentrated in Big4 cities: the % of allochtones in these cities increased from 36% (1995) to 43% (2004) 1.3 Within Big4 cities, concentration and segregation of non-Western allochtone neighbourhoods has increased 1.4 Consequently and if this pattern continues, the anticipated growth in % of non-Western allochtones can be expected to result in growing concentration and segregation in the Big4 cities. We conclude that this will thus result in a decline in ethnic integration.

Asylum and economic migration are expected to decline over time and emigration (autochtones and allochtones alike) is expected to grow as a result of economic stagnation. However, owing to family reunions and higher birth rates of allochtones mainly, the % of non-western allochtones is expected to increase from 10.4% (2005) to 16.6% in 2050, while the % of autochtones is expected to decrease from 80.9% to 70.3% during this period {CPB}.

The majority of non-Western allochtones is living in the Randstad, i.e. mainly in Big4 cities. The overall percentage of allochtones in Big 4 cities has grown from 36% (1995) to 43%, of which 31 percentage-points are non-Western allochtones (2003) {Forum.nl}. Furthermore, the ethnic concentration of non-Western allochtones within these cities has increased: in 2004, c. 10% of neighbourhoods in Big 4 cities comprises > 50% non-Western allochtones {CPB}.

Enablers:

• Cost of software development
  
• Contracts with companies like Microsoft
  

Inhibitors:

• Open source developments
• Anti-trust lawsuits against standard software suppliers.
• Quite high prices for standard software

Paradigms:

Developments like these will decrease the domination of companies like Microsoft

Experts:

• Software developers
• Business ICT managers

Timing:

No information is needed to understand this driving force.