The future of the global economy in 2015

Introduction

This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 3 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:

The future of the global economy in 2015

The members of Group 3 are:

• Peter Groen
• Wendi Mennen
• Maarten Post
• Harry Schoots
• Eric Verbeek

Research Documentation

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/globalmacro/ which contains a link to an Economist article to get us started: Analysis: The Economist, Sep 06, 2005 The perfect storm.

http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/The_Future_of_the_Global_Village_in_2020 which contains a scenario of last years students.

http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html is the homepage of the National Intelligence Councel. Mapping the Global future is a useful report.

http://www.millenniumassessment.org is the homepage of the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment. Latest research of the MA states that environmental concerns increase opportunities and challenges for business that ultimately might influence the global economy.

http://t21.ca contains a selection of world global trends on different aspects based on many sources. http://t21.ca/economic/index.htm lists the economic key findings.

The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) performed a scenario analysis on the economic future of Europe, downloadable from http://www.cpb.nl/eng/econ/lange_termijn/recente_studies.html
Try also this report on Globalisation and the Global Environment: four quantitative scenarios: http://www.cpb.nl/nl/general/org/homepages/aml/gitage_si.pdf

The OECD published a study on the future of the global economy: The Future of Global Economy: Towards a long boom? http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/42/0/35394025.pdf

The CIA publishes facts of every country and region in the world. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html

Research Questions

Note to group: please add your research questions below.

ECONOMY
Asia

• What is relative GDP to world economy?
• Which countries drive the regional economy?
• What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  
• Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV)

Middle East

• What is relative GDP to world economy?
• Which countries drive the regional economy?
• What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  
• Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV)

Europe (incl E Eu & Russia)

• What is relative GDP to world economy?
• Which countries drive the regional economy?
• What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  
• Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV

Africa

• What is relative GDP to world economy?
• Which countries drive the regional economy?
• What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  
• Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV)

North America

• What is relative GDP to world economy?
• Which countries drive the regional economy?
• What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  
• Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV

South America

• What is relative GDP to world economy?
• Which countries drive the regional economy?
• What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  
• Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV)
  

Global

• What are the trade balances between of the important economies? What is the size and trend in global trade?
  
• What are the resource constraints with respect to economy? (in terms of natural resources)
  
• What is the strength of the American Dollar compared to the Euro, Yen, Guan,...? Is it declining of increasing in the past 10 years?
  

• What other forms of exchange (except) money are used or can be used?

In the article http://www.ode.nl/article.php?aID=4160 the following exchange forms are mentioned: Communities building Temples in Bali, Elderly Care in Japan, Health insurance companies 'pay' for healthy behahiour, frequent flyer programs and other customer programs.
On the site http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/barter.html links are given of all sorts of other forms of trade without using money.
Statistics on barter in 2004: http://www.irta.com/Page.asp?Script=56

Politics

• What will be the role of the Central Banks (ECB, FED)to the economy? (in terms of 'mission statements')
  
• What will be the role of the WTO and UN to the economy? (in terms of 'mission statements')
  
• What will be the role of the NGOs to the economy?

• What will the effect be of global terrorism on the economy?

The following articles give insight in this topic:

• http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~aabadie/twe.pdf. The main theme of this article is that mobility ofproductive capital in an open economy may account for much of the difference between the direct and the equilibrium impact of terrorism.
• http://www.cia.gov/nic/speeches_terror_and_econ_sec.html Gives an account of the current situation, but also the uncertainties. The speech introduces the NIC 2020 project.
• http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html report of the NIC 2020 project with information on terrorism.

• How will the (in)stability of the Middle-Eastern states influence the global economy and the relation of nations?

The following articles give insigth in this subject:

• http://www.cia.gov/nic/confreports_mideast_future.html (Again) from the NIC side. This is an overview of a one-day conference about the middle east for the scenarios of the NIC 2020 project.
• http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/globalconnections/mideast/themes/economics/ gives an overview of economy in the middle east and some usefull links to other sites.

• What will be the effect of the European Union on the global economy (if any)?
  
• What are the blocks of power and what was the past development?
• What is the global military spending in relation to the global development aid?

Society

• What are the effects of the ageing population in Europe and North America to the economy?
  

The IMF has published excellent material on how demographic change affect the global economy http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2004/02/pdf/chapter3.pdf

• How sustainable is the current social security level and health care per region?
  
• What is the effect of increasing education levels on the economy of developing regions?
  

Environmental

• What are alternative energy sources and what is the speed of development?
• What are the scarce resources?
• What is the effect of climate change on the global economy?
• What are the effects of mobility on the environment?

Technology and business

• How will the development of ICT increase the access possibilities to markets?
• What are the effects of off shoring production work by rich countries to low wage countries, and what is the trend?
• What is the growth rate of E-commerce in the world?
• How long does it take the OPEC countries to double their refinery capacity?
• What is the effect of the oil prices on the economy
  
• What are the effects of the reducing energy supply on the global economy?