The Future of Biotechnology for Medical Applications in 2015

Introduction

This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 4 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:

The Future of Biotechnology for medical applications 2015

Scenario Topic

Biotechnology seeks to treat or even cure: Cancer, AIDS, hemophilia, hepatitis, diabetes, growth failure, heart disease, dermatology and autoimmune disorders. Over the last 20 years the biotech industry has grown from virtually none existing to a large industry with the two largest players having a market value around the 100 billion US dollar mark making them leading stocks on the Nasdaq exchange.

A definition of biotechnology is "the commercial application of living organisms or their products, which involves the deliberate manipulation of their DNA molecules" This definition implies a set of laboratory techniques developed within the last 20 years that have been responsible for the tremendous scientific and commercial interest in biotechnology, the founding of many new companies, and the redirection of research efforts and financial resources among established companies and universities. These laboratory techniques provide scientists with a spectacular vision of the design and function of living organisms, and provide technologists in many fields with the tools to implement exciting commercial applications.”
note to Frans: have to add reference

The strategic dilemma is where the biotechnology industry for medical applications is in the “industry life cycle”? Is the biotech industry going to keep showing a 30-50% growth rate per year in the next decennia or is the industry mature and will the growth be comparable with industries like CPG which grow rate is similar to parameters like the growth of the population, inflation or the GDP. Or, has the biotech industry reached its top and will the industry decline and perhaps disappear?

Research Questions

1. What are the ethical drivers to prevent biotechnology to further develop? (Will we allow the industry to clone sheep or will the conservative or religious point of view prevail which would handicap the industry to further grow)
2. What are the ethical drivers to further support or speed-up biotechnological development?
3. Is the recent growth of the cost for medical treatment sustainable? (The cost of health care insurance, which is directly linked to the cost of medicare, has grown about 10% annually partly caused by the growth of the biotech industry. This cost growth does not seem sustainable)
4. What percentile of the growth of medical treatment can be contributed to the biotechnolgy sector?
5. What political developments occur that try to reduce the significant growth of healthcare cost?
6. Has the industry reached its technological peak or has the biotechnological development just started?
7. Which new biotechnological developments are available?
8. How will the FDA and EMEA authorities respond to the exponential growth of the biotech industry and how will their guidelines develop?
9. How, if at all, could biotechnology be used in modern warefare?
10. What could be the consequences of the above question for medical apllications of biotechnology?
11.What percentage of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry is generated by biotech drugs, what percentage is generated by classical drugs?
12. Profit margins of biotech drugs; Profit margins of “classical” drugs
13. What is the structure of biotech industry
- Major players
- Major research institutions
- Major investors
14. Which are the leading places in the world for biotech research for medical applications?
- Compagnies
- Universities and Research institutions?
15. Where (which applications) does R&D money currently flow to?
16. Which ones are currently the important fields of research? Which ones are currently ignored?
17. Which areas of the world are currently the leaders in biotech? Will these areas of the world also be the leaders in the future?
18. What is the legal situation in those parts of the world which are relevant for biotech research?
19. To what degree can governments control on whether laws on biotech research are being respected?