Continuation of Kim Jung Il's attempt to sustain his regime
1.Description:
- Hstory tells us that most of the communitst (or rather dictatorial) countries do fail eventually. North Korea is one of the few remaining dictatorial states by notorious Kim Jung-Il. Thousands of North Korean citizens die of extreme povery and famine every month, and people are becoming desperate to flee from the country betting their own lives. With such dire situation, North Korea can not afford political and econommic isolation from the international community. In turn, Kim Jung-Il chooses the extreme measure of possessing nuclear weapon to sustatin his regime. Whether Kim will use WMD is questionable; however, it seems obviouse that Kim's possession of nuclear weapon, itself, is his great and yet only bargaining tool. His such false attempt puts great danger to not only the Korean Peninsula but also the entire international community.
2.Enablers:
- North Korea's gaining of bargaining tool by possession of nuclear weapon
- Nuclear threat of North Korea to nearby countries and the entire international community (possibility of nuclear war)
- South Korea's attempt to derive peaceful negotiation without involvement of any forces
3.Inhibitors:
- Internally, North Korea's dire economic situation (such as poverty and famine)
- possible civilian upheavals or military coup d'etat against Kim's dictatorship
- Externally, increasing pressure from the international community especially led by the U.S..
- Externally, increasing political and economic isolation (to an intolerable level)
4.Paradigms:
- Kim, Jungil had a diverse difficulty. Without U.S., North Korea could not get out of this severe situation. And so, he wants to have a good relationship North Korea and U.S. However, he does not have enough cards to solve those kinds of problems. And so, he chose the last measure. That is a nuclear weapon. Through nuclear weapon card, Kim Jungil is going to sustain his regime.
5.Experts:
- N/A
6.Timing:
- 1950 The Korean War
- 1994 Kim, ilsung died
- 2003 Six party talk
7.Web Resources:
- http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200304/kt2003042417245210160.htm - http://www.nwc.navy.mil/apsg/papers/Pollack%20NORTH%20KOREA%20PAPER.htm - http://www.almc.army.mil/alog/issues/JanFeb00/MS503.htm - http://www.american.edu/TED/hpages/human/NKorea41.htm - http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/n_korea/relation.html