Future of China in 2030: Ciao Mao

Overview

Environmental agreements slowed the rapid growth of the Chinese economy. The government transfered power and decision making authorities to private businesses in an effort to jump-start the economy. This shift of power from the central government to private industry, coupled with a growing middle class, has sparked division within the central government over direction and policy. The first free and open elections for the national congress are set to happen in the coming year.

2009 - 2015

It would have been very hard to predict the full impact that the Shanghai Expo in 2010 had on China and its development. Similar to the Beijing Olympics in 2008, the influx of journalists and foreign nationals, although fairly well contained by the communist controls, increased the information exchange between foreigners and locals. These world events had also increased international interest in China and tourism in China grew by leaps and bounds. Along with this increased tourism came foreign ideas including criticism for human rights abuses and censorship in China.

The results of the Copenhagen Climate Conference in 2009 were seen domestically as a government failure. China’s pledge to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2030 was spun in Western media outlets not as a victory for the environmental movement, but as a display of weakness by the Communist government who had bowed down to Western pressures. The media further implied that this progressive decision was indicative of Communist China abdicating a global leadership role and questioning the success of its historical growth. As the world emerged out of the recession in 2010 and 2011, demand for Chinese exports grew and the country continued to steadily grow. Incomes and living standards constantly improved and many Chinese youths continued to pursue educational opportunities in the West. When these students returned to China to embark on career opportunities in the world’s fastest growing economy, they brought with them their Western influences and foreign ideas of personal liberties and freedoms.

Information flow was further strengthened with the development of new Web 2.0 tools such as Twitter. Web sharing technologies played a significant role as Chinese residents began to directly exchange information and opinions with people from across the globe. No censorship mechanism could be developed fast or efficiently enough to prevent the free flow of information and by 2015 the Chinese government grew increasingly frustrated with failed attempts to control information flow on the internet.

Meanwhile, environmental concessions, vital to the very survival of China and the world, acted as a handcuff on economic growth as many resources had to be allocated to greening the industry rather than to an immediate increase of production. These actions did not remove China from the ongoing discussion on its ability to follow through on the promised environmental reforms, keeping the nation in the world spotlight. As a result the Chinese economy grew steadily but lacked the exponential growth seen in the early days of the new millennium.

2016 - 2020

By 2016 information was flowing into China from across the world and seeds of new ideas were planted in the minds of the Chinese populace, influencing individuals, groups and movements. Government corruption was still problematic. The Chinese people started to take a stronger interest in personal rights and the desire for individual liberties strengthened.

In 2018 China continued to grow steadily economically and income levels rose. The rate of urbanization continued to increase as workers migrated from the rural West to coastal cities in search of economic opportunities. This contributed to increases in income disparity. Social unrest grew as many Chinese in agricultural and non-export industries felt that the government was no longer taking care of their needs. By 2019, no formal unified health care system existed and, with an aging population, the health of the country had declined. Unable to develop these social programs itself, the Chinese government started to privatize industry and relied on companies to provide these benefits. These private corporations undermined the role of the communist party within the daily lives of the Chinese. As a result, a rift grew within the ruling Communist party. One side favoured economics and the major cities of the East while the other held on to traditional Maoist ideas and focused on the needs of the poor farmers from the larger rural centre of the country.

By 2020 China was faced with another problem. The effects of the one-child policy had come to a head, resulting in a surplus of 30 million Chinese men of marriageable age. Chinese men were forced to search throughout Southeast Asia for wives. “Importing” these wives into the country contributed to an increase in cultural diversity and the influx of foreign ideas.

2021 - 2025

By 2020, the concepts from the European enlightenment of liberty and equality were discussed at private functions and amongst the more educated. The slowdown of the economic growth and rampant privatization had left the people unsure in the strength and effectiveness of their so-called Communist government.

Regionally unequal economic conditions within the country polarized the Communist government. With steady stable economic growth, the hardline Communists within the party argued that it was time to focus on redistributing the wealth to the poorer regions. More moderate voices in the party, with growing concern over the results of trying to reclaim wealth from the middle class, continued to argue that the economic growth, while stable, was not strong enough to risk disrupting.

By 2025 China was a hosting more differing cultures and ethnicities than it ever had before.

2026 - 2030

By 2026, the transition to a free-market economy was complete. Large corporations were playing an increasingly important role in the direction of the country and its policies. The growing middle class started to push for changes in the system. Their pivotal role in society caused them to want a hand in shaping the country’s future. By 2027, the divide within the governing Communist party had reached the point where there was no longer consensus for next president. Two candidates existed—one with support from the coastal regions and one with traditional agricultural support. It was decided to use Western-like secret ballot voting within the party to select the next president. Building on that success, it was decided that the upcoming local elections in 2030 would be expanded to include the first real open and democratic elections for the National People’s Congress. Although the Congress was still considered to be largely a “rubber stamp” for party decisions, it marked the first time in centuries of Chinese history that the people truly had a voice in the formation and direction of government.