Future of China in 2030: Land of a Hundred Kingdoms

Overview

Dissolving of an empire

2009 - 2015

Back in 2010, no one had imagined that the recent displays of Chinese success—the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing, the 60-year celebration of the Communist regime in October 2009, and the hosting of the World Expo by Shanghai in May 2010—would be the nation's last demonstrations as a global power. Everyone knew that the global financial crisis would change the world, but no one could have predicted the fundamental changes it would incur in China. As the whole world stumbled out of the worst recession in a century, China too was slow and failed to restart the massive economic growth that had shot it onto the world stage over the previous 20 years. The 8% growth in GDP in 2010 would be considered as an economic boom in most countries but was a slump in relation to the 13% growth China experienced only a couple of years before. World purchasing habits had changed significantly as a result of record levels of consumer debt and the environmental actions agreed to at the Copenhagen Environmental Conference in late 2009. Demand for the cheap consumables produced in China had plummeted, hindering China’s road to economic recovery.

Western influence increased dramatically throughout 2012 and 2013. The Beijing Olympics in 2008 and the Shanghai World Expo in 2010 marked two events through which new information had managed to trickle through the communist censorship from the rest of the world. The vast number of visitors and tourists coupled with the extensive global media coverage seemed to pose too big of a challenge to Chinese authorities. Moreover, increased use of Web 2.0 applications such as Twitter appeared to overcome traditional communication barriers, always staying one step ahead of governmental responses. As a result, the Chinese populace increasingly became aware of global trends and ideas. They were also exposed to global views on their own country and regime. Citizens became aware of both the corruption within the Chinese Communist Party and the growing income disparity between Chinese workers. People started to question the government for having allowed such non-egalitarianism to enter into Mao’s China. Others looked back to the times of richness and prosperity before communism with a growing interest. Encouraged by the penetration of balanced information into China for the first time in over 60 years, they spread their ideas within the country using the same technological tools.

2016 - 2020

Migration continued to increase throughout 2016 as many Chinese pursued economic opportunities in coastal cities. This intensified economic disparity as workers in agricultural and other non-export driven industries felt that the government was failing to provide them their share of advancement, as they were behind the inhabitants of major cities in healthcare, education and social welfare. The government struggled with these pressures and, realizing that it could not provide appropriate governmental solutions by 2018, decided to further loosen its control of the economy and allocate more power to the burgeoning private sector. While these moves towards privatization did help to improve the economy and provide many of the benefits that workers were looking for, it actually increased wealth disparity as the few who were in a position to reap the benefits of privatization profited beyond anyone’s imagination. Private interest groups began lobbying for increased business freedom and it became clear that various groups in the nation were gaining power, influence and control. Major cities continued to focus on their own development and harboured feelings of individuality and disconnection from the national community. Increasingly, urban inhabitants of important cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Hong Kong began to question whether their economies should subsidize other less prosperous parts of the country.

With this increase in private wealth and self concern came fear of losing the accumulated wealth and capabilities. By 2020 the first gated communities in China were built in Shanghai as city merchants started to fear the impoverished farmers and migrant labourers that came in search of work and money. Cities started lobbied for the strengthening of urban household registration regulations and moved to copy residency restrictions already in place in Hong Kong and Macau in order to slow the inflow of unskilled immigrants from other parts of the country. An "us versus them" mentality became more prevalent. At the same time, industrialists grew fearful that the government would make a move to take back some of their wealth in order to regain control over the once again thriving economy.

Also by this time, there was a surplus of thirty million men of marriageable age in China. People started openly criticizing the regime, accusing its one-child policy as the source of the problem. A new niche industry emerged searching out eligible women through Southeast Asia and the rest of the world. As these brides came to China, they brought with them outside ideas and ideologies, diluting the predominantly Han ethnic base and further undermining the power of the communist government.

2021 - 2025

As the population continued to migrate throughout the country in search of work and new citizen were imported, there was more interaction between Chinese citizens of different locations. This very real interaction highlighted the actual regional differences that have always existed within the country in terms of dialect, culture and tradition. This new knowledge further brought into question the concept of a cohesive China and the unified Chinese identity, further intensifying the regional identities that were starting to take hold again.

2026 - 2030

By 2026 dissent had grown within the Communist party and Beijing appeared to be in a state of disarray. Hong Kong, already a highly autonomous and self-governing Special Administrative Region, decided to seize the opportunity and made a move for total independence. Bolstered by their economic importance and historical diplomatic ties with the West, the move was upheld when the local People’s Liberation Army garrison chose not to interfere and instead accepted a role as a de facto national guard in exchange for higher wages and local passports. Taiwan, backed by the United States and India and encouraged by the inaction of Beijing in the face of such an extreme move by Hong Kong, publicly declared the Republic of China independent. International voices started raising the question whether Tibet or Xinjiang, already areas of fierce regional pride with more in common with their neighbours than their eastern overlords, were to follow. In a pragmatic move greatly reflecting history, the PLA commanders based near Shanghai and Chengdu sided with the local governments, who were able to pay higher wages and offer positions of power and influence, with the idea of forming independent states. This general move took away the last leverage point of the central Beijing government who, by 2030, entered into discussions with the separating states to try to establish some kind of relationship and hold on to a sense of unity.