Future of China in 2030: Ciao Mao

Introduction

A foray into democracy

2009 - 2015

It would have been very hard to predict the full impact that the Shanghai Expo in 2010 had on China and its development. Similar to the Beijing Olympics in 2008, the influx of journalists and foreign nationals, although fairly well contained by the communist controls, increased the information exchange between foreigners and locals. These world events had also increased international interest in China and tourism in China grew by leaps and bounds. Along with this increased tourism came foreign ideas including criticism for human rights abuses and censorship in China.

The results of the Copenhagen Climate Conference in 2009 were seen domestically as a government failure. China’s pledge to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2030 was spun in Western media outlets not as a victory for the environmental movement, but as a display of weakness by the Communist government who had bowed down to Western pressures. The media further implied that this progressive decision was indicative of Communist China abdicating a global leadership role and questioning the success of its historical growth. As the world emerged out of the recession in 2010 and 2011, demand for Chinese exports grew and the country continued to steadily grow. Incomes and living standards constantly improved and many Chinese youths continued to pursue educational opportunities in the West. When these students returned to China to embark on career opportunities in the world’s fastest growing economy, they brought with them their Western influences and foreign ideas of personal liberties and freedoms.

Information flow was further strengthened with the development of new Web 2.0 tools such as Twitter. Web sharing technologies played a significant role as Chinese residents began to directly exchange information and opinions with people from across the globe. No censorship mechanism could be developed fast or efficiently enough to prevent the free flow of information and by 2015 the Chinese government grew increasingly frustrated with failed attempts to control information flow on the internet.

Meanwhile, environmental concessions, vital to the very survival of China and the world, acted as a handcuff on economic growth as many resources had to be allocated to greening the industry rather than to an immediate increase of production. These actions did not remove China from the ongoing discussion on its ability to follow through on the promised environmental reforms, keeping the nation in the world spotlight. As a result the Chinese economy grew steadily but lacked the exponential growth seen in the early days of the new millennium.