Future of China in 2030: Land of a Hundred Kingdoms

Introduction

Dissolving of an empire

2009 - 2015

Back in 2010, no one had imagined that the recent displays of Chinese success—the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing, the 60-year celebration of the Communist regime in October 2009, and the hosting of the World Expo by Shanghai in May 2010—would be the nation's last demonstrations as a global power. Everyone knew that the global financial crisis would change the world, but no one could have predicted the fundamental changes it would incur in China. As the whole world stumbled out of the worst recession in a century, China too was slow and failed to restart the massive economic growth that had shot it onto the world stage over the previous 20 years. The 8% growth in GDP in 2010 would be considered as an economic boom in most countries but was a slump in relation to the 13% growth China experienced only a couple of years before. World purchasing habits had changed significantly as a result of record levels of consumer debt and the environmental actions agreed to at the Copenhagen Environmental Conference in late 2009. Demand for the cheap consumables produced in China had plummeted, hindering China’s road to economic recovery.

Western influence increased dramatically throughout 2012 and 2013. The Beijing Olympics in 2008 and the Shanghai World Expo in 2010 marked two events through which new information had managed to trickle through the communist censorship from the rest of the world. The vast number of visitors and tourists coupled with the extensive global media coverage seemed to pose too big of a challenge to Chinese authorities. Moreover, increased use of Web 2.0 applications such as Twitter appeared to overcome traditional communication barriers, always staying one step ahead of governmental responses. As a result, the Chinese populace increasingly became aware of global trends and ideas. They were also exposed to global views on their own country and regime. Citizens became aware of both the corruption within the Chinese Communist Party and the growing income disparity between Chinese workers. People started to question the government for having allowed such non-egalitarianism to enter into Mao’s China. Others looked back to the times of richness and prosperity before communism with a growing interest. Encouraged by the penetration of balanced information into China for the first time in over 60 years, they spread their ideas within the country using the same technological tools.