New Beginning

The scenario

The year is 2030 and the Northern African countries are celebrating the finally concluded agreement creating the Mediterranean Union. This treaty, a French initiative, creates a trade zone like that one implemented by Europe with the EU. Now, countries like Morocco and Algeria will be able to access more easily the EU countries and also take advantage of all trade agreements between these two regions.

This agreement is also a reinforcement of the progressive European policy of expansion based in ideals of open borders and free trade.

The last 20 years of economic growth show that the choice was correct and Europe has been living a long period of prosperity and peace since the end of the financial crisis of 2009.

Large investments in sustainable sources of energy helped Europe to be less dependent of oil and gas and, at the same time, created many jobs in Morocco and Algeria with its extensive solar panel farms. In a move to diversify its suppliers of fossil fuels, the European Union accepted Turkey as one of its members, which streghtened its ties with the Middle Eastern countries. This also helped to reduce the threat of terrorism and facilitated dialogue with the countries of the region.

But, another challenge is just beginning: as the European Union became more and more integrated, the interactions among countries became stronger, and even a small event in one country could cause a big impact in the neighboring areas. Because of that, a new type of governance was created and will begin to be adopted. That was named network governance, and the basic concept is to give seats in the parliament of one country to representantives of other countries, so they can participate in the decisions that can cause trouble beyond its own borders. This new concept still needs to be tested but seems very promising.

Timeline

Period of 2010 - 2015

With the end of the Financial Crisis, a stable and increasing economical growth started all over Europe. Because of that, the money that was being used to fund the financial institutions started to be invested in long-term policies to develop the recently admitted countries to the same level of the old members.

This new acquired wealth was also used by Governments to support the development of sustainable sources of energy. This decision was received with great enthusiasm by the public opinion, which was very concerned about the future problems caused by the global warming. That decision had another strategic reason: the desire of the EU to become less dependent of Russia's oil and gas. The possibility of becoming hostage of their prices policy became very clear after the Ukranian case, when Russia simply turned off the pumps to force an increase of price. Government's policies of incentives led to companies starting to invest in this business, with some solar farms being created in North Africa to supply, initially, the Southern part of Europe.

New regulations regarding CO2 emissions were also approved, restricting more the amount that each company could release to the environment. All those measures protecting the nature were a result of increasing concerns about the future, especially because most of the coastal areas of Europe would be affected by an expected raise of sea levels due to the global warming, which could cause a reduction of the ice in the North and South Pole areas.

Later in 2012, Turkey's pledge to become part of the European Union was accepted. There were some public protests from both sides, but those were considered as being promoted by minorities affiliated to extreme right wing parties and were easily controlled after a while. This new partnership proved to be profitable for both, because EU gained a fast growing market with a better access to the Middle Eastern countries and Turkey started to play a fundamental role in this integration, receiving many investments from Western companies aiming to reach that area.

Period of 2015 - 2020

Newly developed technologies in wind and solar generators, made even more viable the use of these alternative sources of energy. As a result, investments in solar farms increased in the North of Africa. Morroco and Algeria were the most benefitted countries, because of their close ties to Europe (France in special) that were created by the african immigrants.EU governments were still investing a high sum of money to improve even more this technology and later European countries became a global reference of sustainability regarding the use of energy.

Those investments increased the desire for a better integration and the old plan of a bridge joining the two continents emerged again. Feasibility studies began and the EU was prepared to fund the building of that if a "green light" of all members was received.

Continuous growth was still taking place and the expansion of the influence of EU became even more evident. The terrorism threat decreased because of the good integration with the Middle East, led by Turkey. The EU influence in Africa also strenghtened during this period but there were, still, some remaining bad feelings because of past colonization. But the African population, in general, was viewing more benefits than problems with this new wave.

Some rumors of a possible Mediterranean Union began to rise and parallel discussions started, especially from France with their former colonies in North Africa. Turkey also led another group trying to create stronger bonds with the Middle Eastern area. To demonstrate the EU was supporting this new plan, some border controls were relaxed and more trade agreements were signed by EU with individual countries of the region.

Immigration reduced, in some extent, because of the European investments in Africa but it was still occuring. It had a good and a bad effect. The good side was that those people were needed to support EU's growth. The bad side were some conflicts that happened but were soon controlled. It was clear that the extreme right was losing power and that people was not willing to support violent attitudes. Those right wing parties also understood the message and were changing their speeches and organizing themselves in political parties instead of armed groups.

As the connections among countries became stronger, small political decisions in one place began to cause changes in other areas. Because of this close correlation, EU began to discuss a more integrated political policy among their members, the so called Network Governance.

Period of 2020 - 2025

The building of the bridge connecting Europe and Africa finally started in 2023. Despite some opposition, the project was defined and was given priority by EU, with France and Spain putting their commitment with this big project.

The talkings about the Mediterranean Union were very advanced at that point in time, with Turkey leading the Middle Eastern and France leading the African conversations. It was just a matter of time until they could find a common point of agreement.

Economical growth was still happening, and the possibility of an energy scarcity was pushed away with more investments in sustainable generation and also with newly signed agreements with African countries to supply oil and gas to Europe. Those agreements, together with the supplies that were coming from Middle East were more than enough to sustain EU's growth.

EU's expansion continued and some countries from East Europe are now part of the Union. Russia was still an independent country regarding the EU but the relationship with the region was stable and strong, after all both regions had interests: Russia and the EU were big markets.

Network Governance was still under discussion, especially because of concerns regarding sovereignty of each country. A number of regional groups of countries, like BENELUX and the Nordic Countries, were studying the problem in more detail because, sometimes, a country decision was influencing the neighbors, forcing an unexpected change of plans in the affected area. It was scheduled for 2025 a pilot project involving Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg.

Period of 2025 - 2030

The Euro-African Bridge, connecting Europe and Africa, was completed in 2029 but its official opening ceremony was only in 2030. This date was chosen to coincide with the signature of the Mediterranean Union treaty. Now there is a new economical block, which has countries in Europe, Africa and Middle East.

Because of this increasingly closer relationship between the two regions, some immigration rules were relaxed and it made easier to travel from one area to the other.

This new set of countries has a high probability to later be unified with the European. If this happens there is a great possibility that the economical power will shift to this new region, surpassing USA.

The concept of network governance still divides opinions but the BENELUX area had been using it for a couple of years and the results are good. In the beginning there were fears of big interferences among the countries, but those were solved with clear rules that were adopted by all three countries. Based on the demonstrated success, the Nordic area began to use the system in 2028 and is still adjusting it according the problems arise. All remaining countries in the EU are following the results but it is very unlikely that this type of governance becomes the general practice in the short-term.

Introduction

The "New Beginning" scenario focus on an European Union based on policies of similarities among countries and that those similarities will be able to create a movement of renewal within the area.

Network Governance

Network Governance was defined as a form of government where neighboring countries can have a seat on each others Parliament. These representatives will take part in some decisions that can cause a collateral effect in their own countries.

Mediterranean Union

Mediterranean Union was defined as the region formed by the countries in Europe, North Africa and Middle East that are bordering the Mediterranean Sea. It was created to be basically an economical block, like EU was in the beginning.

Conclusion

Add conclusion here

Graphical timeline