Energy crisis in Asia

Description:

While economic growth in China has certainly contributed to world economy there have also been problemsas the result of the growth. One of the most serious problems is energy problem. The power shortage will continue in the near future due to China's economic growth, which is being driven by the infrastructure and manufacturing industries. Recently, consumption of electricity and gas for automobiles is rapidly increasing in China because of rapid industrialization and increase of automobiles. Actually, in spite of the rapid industrialization, the supply of electricity was limited in 26 provinces in China in 2004. One of the famous economy institutes warned that China will face serious shortage of electricity in Shanghai area in summer in 2005. The crisis will trigger many issues not only in Asia but also in the world.

- Slowing down chinese economy resulting in slowing down world economy - Higher price of energy (oil, natural gas, uranium, etc) - Higher tension on territorial dispute among Asian countries to secure potential oil region (South China Sea, northern territories between Japan and Russia), etc - Bad effect on supply of goods from China to the world

Enablers:

Extreme cold temperatures
Market manipulation
Industrial actions
Disasters
Instability in key producing regions
Clash of Asian countries over territorial disputes of potential energy sources
Failure of regulation on energy consumption and then sudden energy crisis in China
Failure of development of alternative energy

Inhibitors:

Energy conservation
Development of new and larger power plants
Development of new energy sources
Amicable solution on the potential oil region in the South China Sea and then development of the area
Successful governmental regulation for rapid growth of energy consumption in China
Hybrid or fuel-cell cars in China, U.S, and other countries
Amicable solution in Middle East

Paradigms:

If energy crisis happens in the worst manner, its effect to the world cannot be measurable. Global downturn in stockmarket could occur with the bottleneck of energy problem. No companies will invest future technology for internet or wireless telecommunication. Governments cannot support further development of internet because securement of energy source becomes their top priority.

Timing:

'90s Chinese government revised its policy on self-sufficiency of energy because of the rapid increase of energy consumption in China
'93 China became a net importer of oil
'94 U.S and North Korea agree on KEDO
'01 China and Russia agree on an oil pipeline construction
'03 U.S, Japan and South Korea agree to freeze KEDO program
'05 China (CNPC) takes over Kazakhstan's oil company
'05 China secures oil rights in Iran, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Sudan, Venezuela