Future of the European Union in 2030

Team Composition

• Arthur Danzi
• Gudmundur Kristjansson
  
• Mauricio Suzuki
  
• Sameer Agarwal
  
• Sri Hari Krishnan
  

Research Questions

EU & Europe Definitions - Mauricio

1. What is the definition of Europe?
2. What countries are part of the European Union?
3. What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?
4. What is the euro zone?
5. What is the history of the European Union?
6. How is the European parliament elected?
7. How is the European parliament structured?

Politics & Policy - GK

1. How do the countries work together?
2. What are the main bodies of the EU?
3. How does the EU take decisions?
4. How does the EU tick?
5. How is the EU budget managed?
6. Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?
7. Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?

-x-x-x-

1. What is the European Union foreign policy
2. What are the main political issues currently facing the European Union
3. What are the main political forces in the European Union
4. What are the main treaties and laws that has shaped the European Union
5. How is the European Union Governed

-x-x-x-

1. How is high unemployment rate in western EU affecting EU policy towards a more free market system?
2. How is high unemployment rate in western EU affect EU policy towards labor laws?
3. What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?
4. Is Europe losing its importance?
5. What role does Africa play for Europe?
6. Is there a chance of a power shift from UK, DE, FR to a new country/region in Europe?
7. What is the main driver for the expansion?
8. What will happen if Turkey is accepted as part of the EU?

Environment - Sri Hari

1. What is the key driver for environmental policy changes for EU the past 5 years?
2. Will the EU change its environmental focus in the next 20 years?

Economics - Sameer

1. What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?
2. How is monetary policy governed within the EU?
3. What can cause the instability of the Euro?
4. Will the EU change its Economic policy because of the financial crisis in 2007-10?
5. How will be the energetic matrix in 2030?

Society - Arthur

1. Does European Union really bond its members together?
2. How do European inhabitants feel about the creation of the EU?
3. Will the large immigration numbers affect EU policy towards expansion?
4. What present of EU states are satisfied with being a member state?
5. How "European" are EU citizens and do they share a common identity?

Terrorism - Mauricio

1. What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?
2. How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements can influence the future of EU?
3. European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?

Demographics - Sameer

1. What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?
2. What are the main religions practiced in the EU?
3. What are the main languages spoken in the EU?
4. What are the main issues with changing religion makeup of Europe?
5. What will be the main issues with the ageing population of the western EU states?

Geopolitics - Sri Hari

1. What is the EU's outlook towards full membership of the Balkans and Turkey?
2. Would EU disintegrate like the USSR?
3. Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?
4. In case that the EU will form a large economic block, what USA would do?
5. If Iceland will be the 29th member state, will it cause any friction between the EU and other application states?
6. How will EU and China relationship develop?
7. How will EU and India relationship develop?
8. How will EU and US relationship develop?
9. How will EU and North Africa relationship develop?
10. What role does Africa play for Europe?
11. What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?
12. Would Russia with its huge gas reserves would like to play a pivotal role in Europe?
13. How does the world (US, BRICS,etc.,) perceive the EU? Would they want a strong EU?

Infrastructure - Arthur

1. Does the EU need to focus on new infrastructure approaches?

Driving Forces

Political Driving Forces

1. World Unification
2. Threat of war
3. The Rise of BRIC Economies

Technological Driving Forces

1. Public attitude to science and technology
2. Mobility
3. Nanotechnology

Environmental Driving Forces

1. Greenhouse gases emissions trading affecting production in the EU
2. Scarcity of Water in the EU
3. Increasing need to clean energy

Economic Driving Forces

1. EU ambitions for economic growth, as expressed in the Lisbon Declaration.
2. Threat of total financial meltdown
3. European integration
4. European dependence on Russian Gas

Societal Driving Forces

1. EU view of itself – culturally diverse or seeking homogeneity – with the associated political implications
2. Increasing Mobility
3. Aging population
4. Changes in Religion buildup of Europe
5. Aging Europe

References

Scenario Reports

• NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary
• New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)
• European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)
• Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States

Economic Reports

• Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union

Presentations

• [http://ec.europa.eu/budget/reform/conference/documents_en.htm Conference "REFORMING THE BUDGET, CHANGING EUROPE"

News & Other Sources

• Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios
• Economic Problems of European Union
• Immigration Problems in EU
• Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?
• Q&A: EU enlargement

Meeting Agenda

September 9, 2009 - 17:00 to 18:30
September 14, 2009 - 14:00 to 15:00