Future of the European Union in 2030

Team Composition

• Arthur Danzi
• Gudmundur Kristjansson
  
• Mauricio Suzuki
  
• Sameer Agarwal
  
• Sri Hari Krishnan
  

Research Questions

1. What can cause the instability of the Euro?
   
2. What bounds Europe together?
   
3. What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?
   
4. What is the definition of Europe?
   
5. What is the Euro zone?
   
6. Is Europe losing it's importance?
   
7. What role does Africa play for Europe?
   
8. Is there a chance of a power shift from UK, DE, FR to a new country/region in Europe?
   
9. What is the history of the European Union?
   
10. What are the main demographic characteristics of the EU?
    
11. How is the European parliament elected?
    
12. How is the European parliament structured?
    
13. What are the main economic
14. How do European inhabitants feel about the creation of the EU?
    
15. Would EU disintegrate like the USSR?
    
16. What will happen if Turkey is accepted as part of the EU?
    
17. Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?
    
18. In case the above is possible, what USA would do?
    
19. How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements can influence the future of EU?
    
20. European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?
    
21. Will the EU change its Economic policy because of the financial crisis in 2007-10?
22. Will the EU change its environmental focus in the next 20 years?
23. What is the key driver for environmental policy changes for EU the past 5 years?
24. Does the EU need to focus on new infrastructure approaches?
25. Will the large immigration numbers affect EU policy towards expansion?
26. If Iceland will be the 29th member state will it cause any friction between the EU and other application states?
27. How will EU fishing policy change over the next 20 years due to scarcity of fish?
28. How will EU agriculture policy change over the next 20 years?
29. What are the main issues with changing religion makeup of Europe?
30. What will be the main issues with the ageing population of the western EU states?
31. What present of EU region are satisfied with being a member state?
32. Will high unemployment rate in western EU affect it's policy towards a more free market system?
33. Will high unemployment rate in western EU affect it's policy towards labor laws?
34. How will EU and China relationship develop?
35. How will EU and India relationship develop?
36. How will EU and US relationship develop?
37. How will EU and North Africa relationship develop?
38. What is the main driver for the expansion?

Driving Forces

Political Driving Forces

1. World Unification
2. Threat of war

Technological Driving Forces

1. Public attitude to science and technology
2. Mobility
3. Nanotechnology

Environmental Driving Forces

1. Greenhouse gases emissions trading affecting production in the EU
2. Scarcity of Water in the EU
3. Increasing need to clean energy

Economic Driving Forces

1. EU ambitions for economic growth, as expressed in the Lisbon Declaration.
2. Threat of total financial meltdown

Societal Driving Forces

1. EU view of itself – culturally diverse or seeking homogeneity – with the associated political implications
2. Increasing Mobility
3. Aging population
4. Changes in Religion buildup of Europe

References

Scenario Reports

1. NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary
2. New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)
3. European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)

News & Other Sources

1. Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios
2. Economic Problems of European Union
3. Immigration Problems in EU
4. Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?