Driving forces - Industrial System

1. Availability of more eco-friendly materials Shubashree

Description : In today's world, the need of eco friendly material has never been more than before. It was always there but has significantly increased now. With new sustainable goals for countries and

Enablers: The rising environmental norms and uses of various SDGs getting embedded in corporate social responsibility reporting of companies has enforced many corporations toward incorporating eco-friendly materials. Also the incoming generations (millenials , genZ) are demanding the drive of more eco-friendly products in general.

Inhibitors: The cost of eco-friendly materials and its impact on price of final product can be one of the reasons which make manufacturing challenged. Furthermore, many a times the technology or rather the lack of technology to create or have a sustainable source of eco-friendly material is a major inhibitor. Also we need more investments and scientific experts collaborating and working in this field.

Paradigms: The millennial and GenZ need to have sustainable products.

Availability of more eco-friendly materials - Subhashree - ScenarioThinking

2. Increase of consumer awareness on environmental issues Antje https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Increase_of_consumer_awareness_on_environmental_issues

Description: An increasing part of the population is considering more sustainable behaviours and is mindful on their impact on the environment. This is not only theoretical awareness, but also more and more people are willing to take personal action to combat environmental and sustainability issues and take according decisions.

Enablers: Social media Easy access to information (internet) Measurability of environmental change Green governments The pandemic Growing wealth

Inhibitors: Fake news Conspiracy theories Convenience Habits

Paradigms: Establishment of an environmental awareness month; growing google search statistics on environmental topics; increasing news on environmental topics; increasing demand on eco-friendly consumer goods

Experts: Green party members Environmental activists Environmental physicist Statistician

Timing: Since around 2000

Resources: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/sustainability-strategies-international/environmental-awareness-in-germany https://www.mastercard.com/news/research-reports/2021/consumer-attitudes-environment/ https://www.climateaction.org/news/wwf-huge-rise-in-demand-for-sustainable-goods-during-pandemic https://www.charities.org/news/environmental-awareness-month

3. Availability of new manufacturing technologies (3D printing, automation, robotics) Antje https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Availability_of_new_manufacturing_technologies_(3D_printing,_automation,_robotics)

Description: The deployment of innovative manufacturing technology is constantly rising, and workflows are constantly further optimized and automized.

Enablers: Digitalization Technological invention More effective human-machine interfaces The internet of things

Inhibitors: Labour protection organizations Supply chain scarcity for chips

Paradigms: Increasing material diversity for 3D printing; constant rise in production efficiency;

Experts: Technicians Engineers IT experts

Timing: Since around 1990

Resources: https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/future-of-work/trends/WCMS_555548/lang--en/index.htm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3D_printing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automation

4. Availability of technology to optimize supply chains in different respects – time, cost, CO2,... Tobi Abimbola https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Optimized_Supply_Chain_processes_-Tobi_Abimbola

Description Without Supply Chain, it is near impossible to achieve globalization. Improvements in Supply Chain processes have helped manufacturers and industries expand, increasing profit by enabling access to low cost raw materials and supply of finished products to global markets. As the world becomes increasingly smaller, Supply Chain is the connecting force bringing the world closer together, promoting industrial growth. enabling industrialization and facilitating globalization.

As Supply Chain management stretches through the entire manufacturing process from material sourcing to product delivery, optimizations at different stages of the Supply Chain process will invariably lead to a more efficient manufacturing and can ultimately change the way we produce things. Designs to make Supply Chain efficient can affect where Plants and industries are located, which material is easier to process or readily available. Types of materials available can affect how plants are designed and how manufacturing is done.

Other factors like warehouse location and lifecycle of products can also after where goods are manufactured and stored. Decisions to reduce carbon emission in the Supply Chain processes can also affect manufacturing, giving rise to planning the most efficient supply chain route and factory and warehouse locations. In some cases plants will be located in areas with cleaner energies, designed to be more energy efficient and even located in regions with cleaner and greener raw materials.

As discussed above, the supply chain process is the heart of manufacturing, it starts, stays through production and also ends production lifecycle. Optimizing supply chain is invariably optimizing the manufacturing process. It can significantly change the way we produce things.

Enablers Increased global demand and population: Growing demand will require improvement in supply chain if the demands are to be fully met. Continually expanding supply chain processes to accommodate market growth and expansion will ultimately lead to optimization of the supply chain processes. Increase in population also leads to increase in demand of goods generally which also makes industries optimize the supply chain to meet the growing demands.

Improved global spending power: The average middle class family is growing globally especially in developing countries. This growth is contributing to the increased number of global population with money to spend, which means more consumers and more demand for products and services from manufacturers and consequently leading to push to optimize the supply chain process.

Advancements in technologies: Technological advancements like supersonic aircrafts, faster ships and modernized railway infrastructures can accelerate the optimization of supply chain processes. Reducing cost and time, and enabling more products to be shipped per trip which will help improve efficiency of the supply chain process. Also, automated warehousing is getting more popular, reducing the lead time

Optimized transportation: Improved transportation connectivity can lead efficient transportation which is one of the cores of supply chain. Hence, a good transportation network will aid the optimization of supply chain process.

E-Commerce: with current explosive boom in e-commerce, more and more people globally are having access to products produced all over the world. Items are procured and received online irrespective of the product location. Warehouses are strategically located to aid increasing demands. Ease of access to online stores means more and more people are buying and demands are increasing, making manufacturers re-invent the entire supply chain processes.

Inhibitors War and Conflicts: Conflicts disrupts economic activities and make moat affected regions inaccessible. Demand falls due to conflicts and lack of economic activities. More and more people in those regions will have less access to funds to procure products or services.

Global pandemic: Pandemics disrupts transportation and logistics which in effect causes delays, due to reduced port activities, reduced available manpower in warehouses, factories and ports, leading to uncertainly long lead times. Also, causing backlogs and unfulfilled orders.

Economic issues: Economic depression or meltdowns will lead to reduced spending power and less demands, which will give no incentive for the manufacturers or businesses to optimize the supply chain process.

Paradigm The world is seen to be more connected and smaller due to efficient supply chain networks. The more efficient a supply chain network is the more connected the world seems and the smaller it is viewed. As timing and cost to produce and move materials an finished product will be greatly reduced.

Experts International procurement and supply chain management institute https://www.ipscmi.org/ Institute of supply chain management https://www.ioscm.com/

Timing Advancements in supply chain began with the great industrialization in the era of mass production, championed by the likes of Henry Ford in a bid to get low cost supplies globally. Done mostly by sea freight and detailed planning because of the long sea travel requirements.

Web Resources https://www.selecthub.com/supply-chain-management/5-areas-supply-chain-optimization-improves/ https://online.maryville.edu/blog/global-supply-chain-management/ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225778148_Global_Optimization_in_Supply_Chain_Operationshttps://www.omnisci.com/technical-glossary/supply-chain-optimization

5. Growth Markets have the opportunity to learn from existing consumer markets and ‘leapfrog’. Erik https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Growth_markets_leap-frog_Western_economies_-_Erik_Jongbloed

Description: Growing economies that transition from a production society into a consumer society do so in a different era compared to their Western peers. Wellbeing and quality of life in urban areas are more important and receive greater attention from policymakers, allowing these countries to make a ‘green transition’ as opposed to a ‘grey transition’. Culturally, individualism and short-term orientation in these markets is lower compared to western societies, allowing these economies to adopt new methodologies and frameworks that propel sustainable growth.

Enablers; The evolution of the role of the consumer, Growth of the middle class in the eastern hemisphere, Rebalance of geo-political power, Convergence of business and politics, Crisis of capitalism.

Inhibitors; Family and community wellbeing are highly valued, and congestion and air quality in urban area’s are important concerns for policy makers. Knowledge distribution through digital tools increases speed of adoption of new trends; for example the implementation of true omnichannel propositions and construction projects that are developed and used as a blueprint for rapid roll-out to other cities.

Paradigms; Digitalization of manufacturing processes. Shift of focus from individualist capitalism to societal wellbeing.

Experts; Kishore Mahbubani Xiaoqin Zhang

Timing; 2015 - 2025

Web Resources; https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440211013780 https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/tir2020_en.pdf

6. Supply chain transparency Erik https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Towards_supply_chain_transparency_-_Erik_Jongbloed

Description: With the increase of the ‘power of the consumer’ and the increased concerns about the environmental impact of consumption patterns in the advanced societies, companies are increasingly challenged on their ESG impact and performance. Origins of ingredients and methods of construction and manufacturing are scrutinized and publicly evaluated – and even lead to boycotting and serious reputational damage for organizations. Technological developments and advances in digital communication allow for a more activist stance against those organizations that do not make visible efforts to act responsible.

Enablers; Blockchain technology allow consumers to track exactly where components of products originate from. Digital communication technology. Awareness of the impact that organizations have on the environment (in the broadest sense of the word).

Inhibitors; Global versus local sourcing and supply chain management. Transparency versus competitive advantage.

Paradigms; Shift from Supply chain and manufacturing as a means of competitive advantage towards Distribution. The power and influence of consumers and reputational risk.

Experts; Patagonia Nike

Timing; 2015 - 2030

Web Resources; https://hbr.org/2019/08/what-supply-chain-transparency-really-means https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JMTM-03-2019-0118/full/html?skipTracking=true&utm_source=TrendMD&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Journal_of_Manufacturing_Technology_Management_TrendMD_0&WT.mc_id=Emerald_TrendMD_0

7. Labor and skill availability Tobi Abimbola https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Labor_and_Skill_availability_-_Tobi_Abimbola

Description Majority of manufacturing is done in the East while consumption of goods in mostly in the West, this is evident in the largest volume of raw materials consumed in Asia and the largest volume of waste is more in the landfills in the United states. Essentially the East produces more, and will need more labor. One of the reason for this is the availability of affordable labor in Asia. If labor becomes scarce due to mass immigration of skilled labor into the west from Asia, it may lead to increases in labor cost because of it's scarcity and lead to possible rise in cost of manufacturing in the East.

This can impact the way things are manufactured or even where things are manufactured, as these can change not just the way things are manufactured but also consumer behavior. It can affect the way raw materials are sourced and where they are sourced as factories may relocate back to the west where the labor have migrated to.

Or the ever growing youthful and skillful population in Asia and Sub-Saharan African (SSA) can lead to economic power shift from the West to the East. With the aging population in Europe having lesser buying power compared to the youthful population in Asia and SSA. It then only makes sense to focus both manufacturing and selling in a region like Africa and Asia where both skill and market opportunity exists.

Enablers Immigration : Mass human migration can lead to the shift in skill and labor distribution, leading to scarcity in some areas and more availability in others. This will definitely affect the way things are manufactured.

Globalization : The world becoming very closely knitted such that supply chains and IT infrastructures are very capable of reducing or eliminating connection barriers. Then it will not matter where things are manufactured or where raw materials are sourced because supply chain and connectivity are very efficient leading to very low and efficient cost and time.

Economic growth : Regional economic growths can lead to shift in consumption patterns and consumer purchasing power. If there becomes an economic boom in Africa and the middle class progresses, the huge population will lead to huge potential consumers with high buying power, leading manufacturers to focus on the region and may lead to change in the way they manufacture.

War and Conflicts : War and Conflicts leads to mass immigration and economic downturns leading to the factors described above.

Global Pandemic : Pandemics can lead to the fall of some economies and the scarcity of labor in some parts leading to supply chain problems and force manufactures to review the ways that materials are sourced and how goods are delivered.

Industrialization : Massive Industrialization of poor economies and regions can lead economic growth in those regions and lead to the factors described in Economic growth.

Inhibitors Technology : Advanced technology will lead to lean production processes with more efficient manufacturing systems and less and less reliance of human skills and labor. This can decrease the number of skill needed to complete a task and reduce demand of labor

Automation : Automated manufacturing may lead to more reliance on digitalization and less need for labor, in this case the skillset may change from say physical skill to more cognitive skills. However the requirement for labor will decrease as more processes will be Automated.

Politics : Political effect like immigration laws and far left activists can make migration less desirable, inhibiting the effect of migration and leading to keeping the status quo the way it is.

Paradigm Availability of labor can shift the dynamics and behavioral decisions of manufacturers. Manufacturers care about optimizing cost and maximizing profit. So, they will move to locations where that make more business sense irrespective of the region. These decisions can change the ways manufacturing is done. Availability or lack of skill and labor can lead to this decisions.

Experts https://irle.berkeley.edu/experts/

Timing After the collapse of European economies and infrastructure at the end of world war 2, there was serious need for skills and labor to rebuild the cities in Europe and a lot of investments to recover from the war. This created opportunities for labor to move from different regions into Europe as there was high demand for labor. It help industrialize Europe and made it a manufacturing hub.

However, in recent times there is been gradual shift in investment and economic activities in emerging economies like Asia and Africa with growing middle class economy. Manufacturer are now focusing on those regions, with high human capital and growing spending power.

Web Resources https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/12/employability-labor-force-economy.asp https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/educate/everyday/labor.pdf https://www.economicsdiscussion.net/economic-growth/role-of-labour-in-economic-development/4445 https://smallbusiness.chron.com/hiring-additional-employees-affect-economy-31964.html

8. Driving force: The rise in automation effecting the manufacturing labor force Thalia https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=A_Rise_in_Automation_Effecting_the_Manufacturing_Labor_Force_-_Thalia_Fry

Description: As AI and IOT technologies transform manufacturing as well know it today, there is great potential for increased automation in manufacturing to displace workers. It has been found that nearly half of paid activities and tasks could be automated. Additionally, automation would also have a positive effect on industrial productivity and fuel economic growth. 30 percent of hours worked globally could be automated by 2030 – which would have a dramatic effect on the global labor force who specialize in manufacturing.

Enablers: The automation industry is projected to increase at a CAGR of 9% between 2021 and 2028. This growth is projected based on the emphasis on process automation, which is designed to minimize costs and human labor by proxy. Corporations are increasingly more interested in adopting robotic assistance to mass produce products.

Inhibitors: There are some tasks that still will require a human touch, and in this way it would not be possible to fully replace a factory with robots. Where creativity and complex problem solving are needed, process robots are not advanced enough to replace a human. In addition, while AI may displace some jobs, this industry will also create a host of new jobs to help support AI growth and development across the manufacturing industry.

Paradigms:

Old: Number of staff would shift to produce as much as possible prior to automation

New:Today robots can produce with demand (not at max volume, but rather, a more precise demand) while lowering labor costs with fewer workers on site.

Experts: Jonathan Tilley

Timing: 2021 - 2028

Web Resources:

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/industrial-automation-market https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2019/01/17/the-alleged-threat-of-ai-taking-away-human-jobs-is-not-what-we-think-it-is/ https://www.valuetransform.com/automation-paradigm-shift/

9. Driving force: Scarcity of Natural Resources Thalia https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Scarcity_of_Natural_Resources_-_Thalia_Fry

Description: As global warming persists; it is possible that resource scarcity could have large impactions on the global industrial system. As population grows, so does demand for products comprised of resources in danger of scarcity. Some scarce materials used in many products include metals, minerals, and fossil resources, which cannot be created by humans, only by way of mining the earth. In addition, water and mineral-rich soil are in danger of scarcity due to climate change and agricultural pollutants. Should we run out of such resources, manufacturers could not sustain mass production as they do today. In this instance, prices of mass-produced goods utilizing precious natural resources would soar, causing a global economic disruption.

Enablers: Supply scarcity can be attributed to crop failures due to changes in weather, or if a natural resource has been polluted or tainted by its enviroment. Over mining of oil and metals that cannot be replicated are eventually likely as there is a limited reserve of such substances on earth.

Inhibitors: Smart factories allow for the most efficient uses of raw materials, which would translate to an emphasis on sustainability and cost reduction. Alternative metals and materials are in the process of being developed to aid this issue.

Paradigms:

Old: Climate change and resource scarcity is not a concern.

New: Alternative fuels are in development to combat resource scarcity

Experts: Dave Young, Rich Hutchinson and Martin Reeves

Timing: 2021 - 2030

Web Resources:

https://www.kuka.com/en-de/future-production/sfpl/megatrends/scarcity-of-resources https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/151207/economics/causes-of-resource-scarcity/ https://media.rff.org/documents/RFF-IB-00-tahvonen.pdf https://hbr.org/2021/07/the-green-economy-has-a-resource-scarcity-problem

10. Economic shift ( from 3rd world economy to 1st world economy) Shubashree

Description: The 21st century could very well turn in to the century where the US loses its status as the ultimate economic superpower of the world, such is the size of the economic powerhouse being built in and around China. Driven by strong growth in emerging countries, an economic power shift from west to east is taking place. This shift has been going on for a while and will reach a new high point around 2010’s. The transition into manufacturing became a key piece of Asia’s development in a context of export-led growth, where Asian companies saw the whole world as their market. The average growth rate of the developed markets is between 0.1-0.2 percentage points per annum for the period to 2050. For developing countries the growth rate is on average more than 3-4% per annum. China’s astonishingly rapid rise to great-power status, both militarily and economically. In the economic realm, the International Monetary Fund forecasts that China’s share of world GDP (15 percent) will draw nearly even with the U.S. share (18 percent) by 2014. Until the late 1960s, the United States was the world’s dominant manufacturing power. Today, it has become essentially a rentier economy.

Enablers: The key enablers especially are: affordable labour and access to manpower. To add on it, availability of youth is high since the east is growing and west has more aging population Capitalism and getting most profits for the industries have made them shift manufacturing toward emerging markets in east.

Inhibitors: The feedback of this effect has been the rise in nationalism in west especially in US and UK. This is because the rise of east as led to shutting of industries and people’s livelihood especially the unskilled labour.

Paradigm: Globalization and rise of internet accelerated the world trace and economy. It also made the world more connected and accessible which fueled the manufacturing sector to become more global or gave remote access.

Timing: 1990's onwards

Web Resources: https://issafrica.org/chapter-2-megatrend-one-the-global-shift-of-power-from-west-to-east https://www.pwc.nl/en/topics/megatrends/economy.html https://www.managementstudyguide.com/paradigm-shift-in-global-economy.html https://nationalinterest.org/article/the-global-power-shift-west-east-6796

Shift in economic power from west to east- Subhashree - ScenarioThinking

11. Economics of waste Antje https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Economics_of_Waste

Description: Waste collection charges vary according to the quantity and quality of waste that households set out for collection and can provide important incentives for waste prevention and recycling. However, such schemes could also lead to more illegal waste disposal, as well as to relatively costly separate collection systems to function well.

Enablers: Government, Municipalities, Society, Environmental organizations

Inhibitors: Competing stakeholders in the economy of waste like recycle firms, countries that import waste

Paradigms: An economy of waste creates incentives to produce waste (for those who make money with waste); those who have to pay for getting ride of waste will have an incentive to dispose it illegal

Experts: Recycling industry, Garbage collection industry, Regulatory body, Tax authorities

Timing: Since around 1970

Resources: https://www.oecd.org/env/waste/economicsofwaste.htm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pay_as_you_throw https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waste_management_law