Ci'Num scenario 1: Collapse

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Position in the scenario tree

• Will we have the global organizational capacity to address the overshoot? - No
• What is the primary constraint of human activities? [irrelevant]
• What are the main mechanisms for organizing large scale systems? [irrelevant]

Initial Description

Despite having the necessary technologies at hand, we have collectively done nothing to reduce global warming and to plan for shortages in fossil energies, fresh water, arable land, etc. Crises of growing frequency and seriousness occur, seriously hurting the world economy and producing severe human damage, both nature- and man-made, especially in developing countries. Hundreds of millions of refugees roam Asia and Africa and the migratory pressure on the North becomes unbearable. Borders close, local conflicts multiply and threaten to extend, mobility decreases, economies and societies tend to relocalize. Public spirit is low; it spontaneously produces both local conflicts and solidarities, but this solidarity can no longer extend globally, since each group fights for its own survival. Technology is mostly used to plan for and cope with coming or present difficulties, as well as to provide alternatives or escapes from an uninspiring daily life. Alternatives are found in frugal, hyperlocal community-building as well as semi-autonomous, encrypted and somehow tolerated virtual networks.

Timeline

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