Open Source Leads the Force
We shall not forget that behind the success of OLPC and the possibility of "affordable laptops" is the work of the Open-Source community. It would have been impossible to make the laptop affordable without the use of Open Source products.
2007
In the first quarter, we've seen already six eligible developing countries announced their commitment to buy 1 million XOs (the name for the $100 machine) before the production begins. This quick commitment after the first machine was built in November 2006 was a quick response that indicates optimism. Countries that pioneered the first buys are surprisingly countries with notorious governance record such as Rwanda and Libya.
The production starts in the second quarter of 2007 with an estimated 10 million units will be build to fulfill the request of those countries. At the end of 2007 there would be about 50 million units spread around the globe in developing countries.
At the same time world giant Microsoft is seeing itself plummeting. The sales of Vista keeps looking bad with customers starts losing its faith in Microsoft. The promised "wow" on Vista in fact brought nothing but more suffering for customers who have had headaches after installing the more expensive Operating System and having to buy a new machine required for running Vista.
Microsoft's partner Intel also grows concern about this progress. Intel is concerned because its rival AMD has a huge stake in OLPC project and that AMD's processors are used in XO. It means that Intel's market share could soon be threatened seriously. Intel is speeding up its work on its own low-cost Eduwise PC to cushion OLPC's negative effect on it. Intel's commitment to Windows is wearing down with its laptop now can choose to have Windows or Linux.
Commercial companies now start mushrooming to create low-cost computers just trying to make some cash out of the opportunities. To match this, they too will have to use GNU softwares.
Of course the happiest party is no doubt the open source community because it means their influence in the market increases. They can see that more and more children will be trained to use the GNU products and thus in the future these kids will have a multiplier effect to the next generation. The community now is even more motivated to create more software to match giant commercial softwares available on the market.
2010
At the beginning of 2010 there will be about 150-200 million XOs in developing countries in the world. The GNU community enjoy bigger popularity and bigger pie in the market. To thank the OLPC, they develop more sophisticated applications to be put inside the XOs. The community also help in raising fund for the project.
The birth rate in the developing countries are still as high or even higher with the better quality of life after the education program to the people.
Windows Vista still does not show any sign of improvement. In fact Microsoft is now getting busy firefighting its conflict with the European governments for tons of market monopoly accusations.
Schools and governments slowly start converting their systems into Linux and other GNUs softwares for compatibility with the laptop as well as economic savings. Also in their minds is why they need to pay so much for Microsoft OS when it is simply more prone to virus attacks, not delivering performance and the more recent version is getting hungry and hungrier of computing power.
Developed countries start realising the impact of OLPC towards the education of the next generation. In view of their low birth rate and the ageing population, the developed countries now start to think of investing in the project in return for a promising educated labour force to help their countries survive in the future. Their donations help OLPC to reduce the production costs and hence allowing more countries to join in. The cost of XOs are now about $70 (taking into account price fall of computer hardware).
2014
Roughly about 250 million XOs are now in the world. The Open Source community are now getting stronger support after more government switching into their softwares.
Microsoft made an improvement with Vista by reducing its errors and send more patches. EU's verdict is to fine Microsoft for its monopoly. This causes billions of stockholders' lost accumulating with the lost from sales slump in Vista. The company is losing its core business: operating systems.
Some children--who first used XOs when it was launched in 2007--have just reached legal age to enter the workforce. In developing countries, most likely they would go to work instead of university. They leverage the country's literacy and educated citizens and help earn the country increase GDP and quality of life.
Some of the luckier ones are given scholarship by the developed countries for purposes explained earlier.
2017
This is the golden year and the actual realisation that Open Source leads the forces of good. The OLPC project has successfully jump started the children's education. Some of pioneer children have finished their degrees from overseas and now ready to build their countries.
They started working in the government and replace the dictators. Then they start good governance and try to eliminate corruption. Benefiting from the OLPC project, these young leaders now want to payback their gratitude by supporting the projects even more for the current children.
Surely they will also support the Open-Source community by promoting the use of its software in their work.
XOs have been released at about 500 million. The laptop is no longer meant only for kids in developing countries. With the price going down and the eagerness of some governments from developed countries to educated their children, OLPC is now allowing developed countries to buy the laptops at double the price. This is meant so that each laptop purchased by developed countries will generate one laptop for a child in a developing countries.
Most of underdeveloped and developing countries have increased their quality thanks to the educated labour force and the good governance.
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