Russia
Fact and numbers
- Kyouto Protocol was ratified by Russia in 2004.
- Russia states that it will fulfill it's obligations in terms of Kyoto Protocol.
- President Dmitry Medvedev before Copenhagen conference stated that Russia may increase it's GHG emissions on 30% by 2020.
- Even if Russia will increase it's emissions on 30% by 2020 it still will be below 10-15% compared to 1990.
- Dmitry Medvedev states that Russia will continue increasing it's energy efficiency.
- Russia keep pushing for the unification of Kyoto Protocol and UNFCCC.
- Russia's climate policy seems to be more oriented on adaptation to the new climate conditions, rather then reducing emissions.
- There are some opinions that Russia can benefit economically from some minor climate changes. (Opening north sailing trade routes, etc.)
- Russia tries to play bigger role in climate negotiations.
- After forest fires in July 2010 there are some expert opinions that Russia may push further on negotiation in favor of GHG restrictions.
Experts
- Vladimir Chizhov - Russia's EU ambassador in Brussels.
- Alexander Bedritsky - the climate adviser to the Russian President.
System Diagram
Reactions and politics
After the break of Soviet Union in 1991 and almost a destruction of heavy industry in the next decade, Russia's level of emissions reduced significantly, compared to what was during Soviet time. This allows Russia to have a significant reserve for further emissions increase if baseline for regulation is chosen as 1990. Therefore Russia's politicians calls during negotiations to agree on LCA ASAP and to make it as strict as possible look like a populism. Also Russia is not planning to reduce it's current emissions, but other way around, plans to increase even further. However even by increasing current emissions Russia is still below level of 1990. Playing with this numbers Russian president recently showed that country wants to have more weight in climate change negotiations as one of the main drivers.
Climate Change policy was recently approved inside the country. However it met a lot of outside critique since it seems to be oriented more on adaptation to the changes, then on their prevention. This could also be explained by the fact that there is an opinion that country could even win from slightly changed climate, since more territories will become available for living and northern trade paths will also become available. However Russia also seems to be strongly negatively affected by climate change - hot temperatures during last summer led to the massive forest fires around all country. Some experts hope that this could change government's approach to the problem.
Since government is in a kind of symbiosis with big business, it is very unlikely that it will change some policies in the nearest future that damage heavy industry or fossil fuels producing industry.
Resources
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/06/23/russias-do-nothing-climate-plan/
http://www.euractiv.com/en/climate-change/russia-climate-policy-fails-raise-hopes/article-182458
http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/views/123324-a-changed-climate-on-climate-change.html
http://www.bellona.org/articles/articles_2010/russian_climate_roundtable
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/06/23/russias-do-nothing-climate-plan/
http://www.climatechange.ru/
http://www.unepcom.ru/?go=razdel&level=2&cid=72