Aging population
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Experts:
- United Nations
- US Department of Health and Human Services
- Centraal beheer voor de statistieken (CBS) for Dutch figures and trends
- Gregory Abowd's Aware Home initiative at Georgia Tech (ubicomputing for elderly people)
- Dutch government department of Health welfare and sports
Timing:
Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.
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