Aging population

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Enablers:

- Technogical advances in medicine

- Better living conditions in the Developing world

- Specialized care, ie geriatrics

- nursing homes

- home care

- telemonitoring

- more media attention

- More health awareness

- Better food quality

- More Hospital beds (from 1994-2001, the number of hospital beds increased with 78%)

- A pandemic flu might strengthen this, since recents deathly victims of this flu were in the age range of 10-40 years

- Discovery of new drugs

- Decrease in price of expensive drugs due to competition / patent break

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Experts:

• United Nations
• US Department of Health and Human Services
• Centraal beheer voor de statistieken (CBS) for Dutch figures and trends
• Gregory Abowd's Aware Home initiative at Georgia Tech (ubicomputing for elderly people)
• Dutch government department of Health welfare and sports

Timing:

Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that there is approximately 85 per cent chance that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.

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