Increase of concentration of non-western immigrants (in Lowlands)
Description:
The portion of non-Western allochtones as part of the Dutch population is forecasted to increase from 10.4% (2004) to 16.6% in 2050
This allochtone growth has historically been concentrated in Big4 cities: the relative number of allochtones in these cities increased from 36% (1995) to 43% (2004). Within these cities appr 10 % of the neighboorhoods comprises 50% of the non-western allochtones (cbp)
Consequently, if this pattern continues, a growing concentration and segregation of non-western allochtones is to be expected in the Big4 cities. This is likely leading to a decline in ethnic integration.
Enablers:
- General openness towards a multi-cultural society
- Availaility of low-cost housing for immigrants in non-black neighbourhoods
- Dutch Language courses and social training for immigrants to enable communication with non-immigrants
- Legislation to prevent Asylum and economic migration (both are actually expected to decline over time)
Inhibitors:
- General resistance against a multicultural society (has grown between 1997 and 2003, CPB)
- Family reunions and higher birth rates of allochtones from poorer/rural areas with low education levels nad low incomes
- Limited job opportunities nor training/education opportunities to grow and live beyond segregated neighbourhoods
Paradigms:
Mainly, the % of non-western allochtones in The Netherlands is expected to increase from 10.4% (2005) to 16.6% in 2050, while the % of autochtones is expected to decrease from 80.9% to 70.3% during this period (CPB). If these allochtones would settle in (concetrated areas within) the big RAndstad cities as has happened historically, and if the size of these big4 cities would remain fairly stable, this would result in an increase of non-western allochtones in these cities from 43% (2004) to c. 70% (2050) i.e. c. 55% in 2025. More than half of the big4 cities could thus be of non-western origin who would be living in segregated/cocnetrated neighbourhoods (which are prone to less social cohesion, social degeneration and increases in social nuisances).
Experts:
CPB, CBS
Timing:
Non western allochtones in The Netherlands are expected to increase from 10.4% (2004) until 16.6% in 2050: autocthones are expected to decline from 80.9% to 70.3% during this period
Web Resources:
www.cpb.nl
www.cbs.nl
www.aivd.nl