Mr. Jeeninga, ECN, Petten

Interview with Mr Harm Jeeninga, ECN, Petten (Institute for Energy Research)

What do you see as major (could even be disruptive) technology to shape the landscape of personal mobility in your field of expertise?
First of all, I don’t see major changes with respect to the type of transportation (private vs. public transportation). Possible technologies on the short term are “hybrid” vehicles (comparable to the Toyota Prius concept) and the introduction of biofuels. The latter will however hardly affect the nature of transport itself. Changes are limited to minor changes in car design, but might, with increasing market share of biofuels, cause significant changes in oil industry. On the longer term, introduction of hydrogen vehicles (ICE or fuel cell) can be foreseen. This can be considered as a disruptive technology, since it affects the whole energy chain (fuel production, infrastructure and filling station and drive train). A(n) (unforeseen) breakthrough in costs/storage capacity of batteries will make all previously mentioned technologies superfluous. Finally, by means of Fischer Tropsch, synthetic fuels can be fabricated. This will have little influence on automotive industry and infrastructure. Oil industry has the basic expertise for these processes but will have to adept the refinery process. Oil mining activities will become superfluous.

What are the major uncertainties your industry? And what consequences do you believe your company will face because of the?
The design and manufacturing of the ICE is responsible for about 40% of the value added of a car. Other components are to a large extent not manufactured by the automotive industry but by external suppliers. Even car assembly is in some occasions already farmed out. When having to switch to fuel cells, the nature of a significant part of automotives activities will be affected. Hydrogen can be produced by oil industry but also by actors currently operating in the power sector. For oil industry, a switch to biofuels is the largest threat and a significant change in their activities is needed in order to keep the current (dominant) market position.

In your opinion, would individual mobility (the way Europeans will transport themselves) be governed by an ever increasing personalization of space (individualistic approach) or by a greater acceptance of public space? Why?
It depends on the world view. It is my personal opinion that due to processes such as individualisation, consumers have a preference for the individualistic approach. Only if the alternative (public oriented transport) has major advantages (e.g. costs), consumers might choose this option.

Will higher energy cost and (for example oil price) have a negative impact on your industry? Why?
Working at a research institute on energy related issues, this is even good for our business. For oil industry, the impact depends heavily on the technological pathways that will be chosen, ranging from severe to marginal. Specifically automotive industry has to fear a severe oil crisis. If we end up in an economic recession with disposable income, it is likely that consumers (and companies) will postpone investment, specifically for luxury goods such as new cars. Instead of changing to a new car “automatically” every two to three years, the investment is postponed. If car sales of new cars go down by 50% for e.g. a three year period, a number of car manufacturers won’t survive this.

What if a major global economic downturn arises and energy prices plummet due to no demand from consumers (since they cannot afford it anymore). How would that impact your industry?
This is very unlikely, due to the high demands for energy in developing countries (e.g. India).

Do you see major changes in urbanization which will affect your industry/company? How?
No

The Environment appears to be ever more present in any mobility choice; politicians are every year confronted with new environmental treaties (e.g. Kyoto), which result in tightening the emission rules. Will this trend continue even though some strong emerging markets do not follow any of these guidelines/rules? How would this trend affect your industry? What would that mean for the future technologies you will bring to light?
New targets are in general based on what is feasible from an economic point of view (maintaining the level playing field etc.) and not on what is actually required from an environmental point of view. This results in short term targets rather than long term, therefore supporting incremental innovation rather than system changes. The resulting lock in effects again cause a situation where in the end it will become hardly possible to achieve more ambitious reduction targets at reasonable costs. An effective environmental policy requires a new way of thinking (long term rather than short term): system changes (rather than incremental innovation) have to be supported and lock in effects have to be avoided.