Did anyone order Chinese?
What changes do you expect in the information society in the next ten years? Write a essay what you expect to happen, and why - using a critical review of McLuhan's theories (i.e. basing it on his thinking, or basing it on a critique on his thinking). Use the material provided and the film to as supporting material.
Introduction
The internet is without a doubt a world-changing phenomenon. And a new medium one decade is far from posing enough time to realize what will be the consequences it will have on human civilization. Therefore, I will limit the scope of this essay to a discussion to the changes in information society as they will be in 10 years alone, without trying to expand the discussion as to the “outcome” of the medium, as that would be clearer I believe only within 100 years.
Some Basic Concepts of McLuhan’s Thinking
McLuhan asserts that each different medium is an extension of the senses that affects the individual and society in distinct and pervasive ways, and classified the media into “hot” and “cold” media.. So first, we need to decide whether the internet is a “hot” (as media which engage one's senses in a high-intensity, exclusive way, such as typography, radio, and film; media that the recipient remains rather passive in the behavior) or “cold” (media of lower resolution or intensity, that require more interaction from the viewer, such as the telephone the television and the caricature), as these were basic definitions that McLuhan used to classify media amongst themselves (i.e. this distinction works only in comparison between different media). As odd as it may sound, the Internet is a mix of both. It really depends what we are using it for. And in that – it is truly a multi-media media. It uses text and “radio-like” streaming sounds – which would make it “hot”. On the other hand, the virtual world requires us to imagine us walking in a store (in a online shop), a library (reading online documents) or a bar (when chatting in a dating site). They require us to integrate ourselves in the new medium to the point that it has created completely new means of communication (as the Netiquette), and not just replicate previously existing mode of communication (as the written word, the telephone or face-to-face conversation achieved with video conferencing).
As McLuhan attempted to offer a unified field theory of culture, he tried to identify the minimal set of messages, or effects, which are common to all media. These would be useful in identifying which human artifacts are media, and which are not. He concluded that there are four messages or characteristics that we need to pose as probes: 1. Enhance - What does the artifact extend, enhance, accelerate or enable? 2. Obsolesce - What does it obsolesces or causes to lose its dominance? 3. Retrieve - What does it retrieve from the past that had been formerly obsolesced? 4. Reverse - When extended beyond the limit of its potential, into what does it reverse?
Application of McLuhan’s Thinking on the Internet in 10 Years Time
I will try and look 10 years ahead into the future and see if I can offer some insights to these characteristics as they will be in 10 years from now. They will of course encompass the same effects the Internet has had up till now.
So what do I think will happen in 10 years to the Internet? 1. English will no longer be the sole dominant language in the Internet, as Chinese will gather momentum in its presence. This will also mean that Google would need to work in Chinese, more engines will offer direct translations and more software companies would need to localize their product to the Chinese market. I actually expect a Chinese operating system to be made available. 2. More P2P activity, more legal violations, especially as China is and in 10 years will still keep a rogue attitude about copyrights, a very “Western” concept”. This will have grave ramifications to the music, film and software industries that will not be able to protect themselves very well from violations. I do not exclude a redefining of the concept of copyrights due to this effect, 3. The WiFi revolution will be under way in 10 years, with most phones operating in urban areas would use the Internet for VoIP and data, and only use the 2.5G or 3G outside urban areas where coverage is limited. Phones will be able to transfer large amounts of data, and so, they will become the smart device for the home, controlling our environment, transferring entertainment (as TV signal and internet data) on demand. The struggle of the main gates, the Portals, will increase, with large corporations attempting to maintain clients using their portal and search engines. The Google, Microsoft (MSN) and Yahoo war will intensify.
To analyze these changes, I will revert to those 4 characteristics McLuhan uses to identify a medium. There is no doubt the Internet is a medium, but lets see how these characteristics will look in 10 years.
1. Enhance
What does the artifact extend, enhance, accelerate or enable? The Internet will continue to enhance human communication, commercial activities, education, home entertainment, personal availability and to facilitate faster and more efficient transactions between individuals and corporations. In this respect I think the only major contribution that would happen to the Internet would be the convergence of the mobile media and the Internet as its platform. The writing has been on the wall for the past 5 years. In 10 years it will be over.
2. Obsolesce
What does it obsolesces or causes to lose its dominance? The Internet has many functions, so I will explore just the main ones and point out what they have made obsolescent, to some degree.
a. For commercial websites: The Internet has already obsolesced physical billboards, auction grounds, shops, brochures, travel agencies, mail and phone calls for information, other media campaigns, errands (to the bank, post office, shops, etc). b. For Intranets: The Internet has obsolesced to some degree the office cafeteria, face to face meetings, business flights, phone calls and mail. c. As a source of information and entertainment: The Internet has already obsolesced – but definitely not entirely - books, TV, radio, cinema, CDs and “real” games with real opponents. d. For personal communication: In this category the Internet has obsolesced much of the following: dating agencies, singles bars, phone calls, mail, travel costs. They still exist, but email and in 10 years time voice and data transfer will be such that they will obsolesce snail mail and mobile and land line telephony to a large degree.
3. Retrieve
What does it retrieve from the past that had been formerly obsolesced? As I will point out later, this is really not a very vital characteristic of media, in my humble opinion (see below). The Internet in 10 years will have retrieved the town square, the radio, and above all – the tribal bonfire (similar to McLuhan’s idea of the “new tribal self”; although I believe TV is far more of a “tribal bonfire” than the Internet will ever be). In addition it is the retrieval of the Alexandria Library (relating to an international global library).
But many of the internet functions and capabilities are truly ground-breaking as far as previous means of communication. The switch from paper to electronic documents poses major questions regarding the meaning of originality and copying. The same applies to all other media that can be translated to an electronic format (music, movies, etc.). In that they retrieve hints to previous media but no more than that, as the mere existence of these entities has never been experienced before. Virtual space or cyberspace by itself was perhaps a retrieval of imaginary worlds, but the terms and meaning of these terms imply complete and different uses.
4. Reverse
When extended beyond the limit of its potential, into what does it reverse? In 10 years time the following aspects of the Internet will have an adverse effect on its capabilities at least as seen at the moment:
a. Ineffectiveness of Online Advertising: Online advertising has already lost its initial panache and as advertisers come up with new technological ideas to ensure exposure to ads on the web, there are more and more technological add-ons to allow us to deal with it, from Spam software, pop-ups blockers, ActiveX blockers and ad removers. This has caused a major switch in the business models that not-for-pay sites used to use, and so many of them require paid subscription for advanced services.
b. Congestion of the web: Gradual slow of the communication has been predicted in the past 6 years over and over again. This is quite plausible, and perhaps even happening, but the advent of cable modems and ADSL should have clogged the web altogether. And yet, the forecast is obvious. This will become more serious in 10 years as millions of other users are expected to go online, especially from emerging markets.
c. Over Dependency on the Internet: If too much reliance on the web is achieved without backup local systems, it is clear that systems may fail in case they are cut off from the web. For example, if a clock at a factory requires synching via the web with one of the Atomic clocks around the world, if it does not have a local backup system this can cause great losses to the operation, perhaps of lives.
d. Terrorism: This reversal is more allegorical. As the Internet was thought to enhance communication between people around the world, as the world is drifting towards a political and religious rifts and conflicts, it will be increasingly more used for other purposes. In that the Internet will bring much harm as it allows people to exchange dangerous information and coordinate activities that are meant to harm people. But this reversal is not directly linked to the medium proliferation,
Critique of the Model
Although the theory is well and sound when using “classical” examples as cars and other technological innovations, I am not convinced that the tetrad model is really applicable in all instances, the Internet perhaps presenting the greatest challenge. I feel that the “Retrieval” and the “Obsolescence” categories are quite arbitrary, with the main thing that separates them is time. That is to say, many things can go under “Retrieval”, as long as they were not in use as of recent. If they were, they will go into the “Obsolescence” rubric. The Retrieval category sounds a nostalgic view of the things that were in use to do certain activities. As they “died out” with the advancement of newer technologies, they became obsolesce. And once the “new thing” becomes obsolesce – they can be named under the “Retrieval” category. This means that the two lists are not that different and only infer at least a one media generation gap. And that in the end does not serve any purpose in an analysis. I don’t see much point in the Retrieval category, as it seems very personal and based on how the individual relate to the activity discussed and their very personal world of connotation.
Which brings me to the next piece of criticism: I find the terms used and the analogies often depicted (especially in the movie) as being extremely Western Culture based, while these laws suppose to transcend cultures and times. But the concept seems to rely on a seemingly global bank of associations that yield to some extent “right answers” to this analysis. For example – the introduction of the car, as a retriever of the knight in shining armor galloping fast across the countryside. This image is foreign to many countries that do not share the Euro-based culture and as such produce a very one-sided view of media.
If we were to ask these four questions a group of average individuals from Zambia, Saudi-Arabia, China, Borneo and Bolivia – will we still get similar insights? I think not. This McLuhen concept of the role of electronic media seem to me to be very limited to Western Culture, and even so, specifically to the US which is undoubtedly has celebrated advertising and mind-numbing, advertising-based, privatized TV and radio networks that together with consumer culture has created all the issues that McLuhen points to. But this model is not so sound in European countries and far less outside these regions. Granted, as US culture has been syndicated for the past 4 decades around the world many people believe they are part of THAT world. Images and concepts that represent Americana have permeated people’s minds everywhere but they do not share the cultural foundation to understand it beyond the exterior. In that respect, people around the world in recent years have started to celebrate Christmas and Thanksgiving or Halloween only because that culture has been marketed to them as “theirs”, but they do so by transferring innate American motifs without any cultural base in their own lives and cultures. The result is a mishmash of TV-influenced impressions of people about the way there are suppose to live. Major culprits in that are the ambassadors of American pop culture that is spreading the new Gospel around the world (as MTV or American films) and on the other hand, the local TV broadcasters that buy cheap American entertainment to their own people, not realizing that by that they are “polluting” their own indigenous culture.
This is where McLuhen stopped, due to the fact that he died in 1980. But had he lived today, I am sure he would have revised his theory of the Media to reflect these inter-cultural effects the media – mainly TV and partly the web – are causing to our world. As I see it, we are living in times that are unique, as we are the generation that can still understand the previous generations not based on prefabricated images that TV shows us, when real cultures were still less intact than they are now. The youngsters living today are already living in a bland world of commercialism and ignorance, of fast-paced media that does not leave time to reflect and of instant consumption of ideas that are just another product. People in the future will know less of the world that existed before them and banality and superficiality will rule. It has to, if global corporations have their way. At this time many of them supersede countries in wealth and power and they are the ones that make most influence of masses. Never in the history of the world so many people wanted to become models and actors, achieve fame and fortune for no real merit and assume that in that they are unique. And while this bleak projection related mostly to the Western World, it will take less than 50 to lose the rest of it to this dogma. The only places that will not succumb to this American Invasion are those that hold the reins through dictatorship and extreme religious faiths; hence the clashes of civilizations that we seem to feel under our feet in the last 4 years.