Collapse of the Environment
Summary
The fundamental concept of protecting the environment has failed to be internationally accepted. Nation’s continue bickering and assigning blame causing international discussion to become heated. The animosity created from failures on the environment spills into all international issues; humanitarian aid, trade, terrorism, finance regulation, airline regulation, etc. Nations focus on regional and local solutions rather than global solutions. Technology is created that enables humanity to address individual issues and situations. However, people’s lifestyles do not fundamentally change. Consumption habits remain unaltered which causes limited resources to dwindle and disappear. Low availability of resources raises international tension and regional long wars. The temperature of the earth continues to rise due to rising green house gas emissions which continues severe weather phenomenon and sea levels to rise. Droughts, severe hurricanes, and massive flooding tax the emergency funds of governments. Animals are not able to cope with the rising temperatures which effects the entire food chain. Ecosystems begin to fail as biodeiversity vanishes. The collapse of the ecosystem instigates a long global war and the collapse of several nations.
Description
2010
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change continues to fail at providing a new regulation on green house gas emissions. Media, NGOs, and global leaders highlight the failures of the United Nations, specifically the United States, China, and Europe. The environmental becomes another tool to degrade international relations. The economy of the world recovers from the economic downturn of the financial crisis by 2011. Investment in sustainable technology continues to increase at the same rate it did previously and still only in developed countries. These new technologies like Light Emitting Diodes (LED) lighting are an easy win to decrease energy consumption. The reductions created by these new technologies are large but not enough by themselves to halt the increase of green house gasses into the atmosphere. Consumption habits do not change. Consumers expect businesses to be acting sustainably, but the majority do complain about high costs for products and services. As a result, businesses switch to green advertising, but do not change their methods. Businesses do move towards sustainable practices but only when it is easy and the costs are low. These superficial movements towards sustainability are not great enough to balance the increase of 600 million people to the global population and the increase of consumerism in developing nations. Our consumption of resources such as oil, fish, water remains high and increases. The tuna reproduction stock in the Mediterranean Sea has collapsed. Failure to lower quotas or temporarily ban tuna fishing earlier in the decade has resulted in dramatically lower catches by the end of the decade. Prices skyrocket as realization of the situation spreads. Oil reserves will only last for 30 years. Green house gas emissions continue to increase. This causes, by 2020 temperature, sea levels, and the average number of storms to rise.
2020
Green house gas levels increase causing the environment to continue to degrade. Temperature has risen 0.15C, sea levels have risen 5 cm, and the average number of storms has risen from 11 to 13. Weather patterns become erratic and extreme. National emergencies are declared for areas hit by the irregular weather wasting government resources. More wealthy people move inland away from coastal regions of Southeast Asia, Southeast America, and the Caribbean. The poor stay and watch their infrastructure and economy collapse. Regular forrest fires and droughts cause people the more wealthy to move away from Southern Australia, California, and Florida. After insurance companies pay billions for these disaster hit areas they have stopped covering any area that is at risk of severe weather. Governments step in to provide insurance and then collapse when a region is hit by severe weather. Sustainable technology has continued to achieve growth and high revenues in localized regions. Some countries provide more market incentives than others in sustainable technology. Germany is currently a leader in subsidizing solar panels whereas Greenland focuses on geothermal technology. Technology is created that addresses only piecemeal issues. Car emissions have become far more efficient, but emissions from factories have not improved. The main reason for emission efficiency is from the high price of oil. Basic supply and demand of oil has affected consumption habits of cars and manufacturers responded with more efficient vehicles. Resources continue to be consumed at exponential rates. Commodity prices increase as markets incorporate decreases in supply. Nations continue to separate between rich and poor nations. Those nations capable of exploiting technology and resources are the more successful, while poor nations continue declining. The Mediterranean Tuna fishery has been completely emptied. Only a handful of fishing boats bring in catches sufficient to stay in business. Blue fin tuna is removed from nearly all restaurants as it is impractical for restaurants to purchase the fish. Only the super rich can afford the rare delicacy. Those still in business benefit from the high prices and minimal supply. Local governments pass regulations regarding their citizens and businesses. Individual states within the United States pass various versions of emissions laws. Some of these laws conflict with national environmental protection laws and legal adjudication is necessary. As people witness more evidence of the collapse of the environment there is a subtle change in perceptions and paradigms. NGOs continue to market and educate the public on sustainable issues. However, the NGOs are not coordinated and focus on their individual agendas.
2030
The world population has reached 8.3 billion. High population and the environment have affected food supplies especially in poorer nations. Island nations continue to raise the issue of rising sea levels to the ineffective United Nations. People do not change their consumption habits. As resources become depleted conflicts arise as nations argue over rights to resources. Renewable energy continues its popularity as other sources of energy become more expensive. No one is able to purchase blue fin tuna as the species was placed on the extinct list. The blue fin tuna story becomes an addition to the hundreds of case studies regarding the failure of humanity to act on sustainability. An artificial tree able to absorb CO2 is perfected and is capable of being mass produced. Individual governments implement programs to purchase the artificial tree, but the scale needed to affect global warming is never reached.
Common Characteristics
Lifestyle – The lifestyle of humans as a whole does not change. More people become aware of the issues of sustainability, but most still do little to nothing to affect the situation. People continue to rely on their governments to set standards and regulations while demanding these do not interfere with their daily lives. Business – Individual businesses incorporate corporate social responsible issues into their core values and processes. There is no standard of measurement or standard of goals for these issues. Although businesses may operate in similar manners the results of their social responsible initiatives may be completely different with each marketing their results as the more beneficial. Cooperation – Cooperation among governments occurs at the regional or local level when shared resources and interests are involved. Some global regulation and agreements are achieved but scientists predict detrimental results are still inevitable. Environment – The environment continues its increase in temperature past the 2 degree limit estimated by scientists. Natural resources and animal species dwindle as they are affected by the increased temperature rise.
Key Uncertainty
A key uncertainty of the scenario is the impact of non-government organizations (NGOs) and individuals. If NGOs are able to reach critical mass by bringing awareness to people and change their fundamental views on the environment then there will be an effective grass roots movement demanding change.
Timeline
