Future of China in 2030

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Hello!
You've reached the page for the Future of China in 2030

Group Members

Guy Keidar
Gerrit Ledderhof
Chia Wei Lee
Johanna Little
Geoff Spielman

Introduction

You guys might want to look at articles published by Bobo Lo, he writes on Russia but also Russo-Chinese relations. Andrei.

Research Questions

Government and Politics

Economics

Society and Culture

Environment

  1. What are the key drivers behind China's current environmental state?

The driving factors behind China’s environmental problems are population, economic growth, and environmental
policy. The trends in China's population growth that cause issues in the environment are not caused by population
growth itself but by an increase in households, decrease in household size, and increased urbanization. The
number of households in China has grown almost three times as fast as its population during 1985-2000. The
average household has decreased from 4.5 to 3.5 people and because smaller households consume more resources
per person, China’s rapid increase in household number and reduction in household size have had significant
environmental consequences. China is also becoming more urban. From 1952 to 2003, the country's
proportionate urban population tripled from 13% to 39%. (Liu & Diamond, 2005)


  1. What impact have these key drivers had on the environment?
  2. What are China's most significant environmental obstacles going forward?
  3. How will the state of China's environment affect the country's future?
  4. What will China's environmental policy be going forward?

Driving Forces

Scenarios

References

News and Journal Articles

  1. Jun, Ma. (2007). How participation can help China's ailing environment. Available: http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/733-How-participation-can-help-China-s-ailing-environment
  2. PBS. (2006). China's Environmental Future. Available: http://www.pbs.org/kqed/chinainside/nature/environment.html.
  3. Liu, J. & Diamond, J.. (2005). China's Place in the World: Environmental Impact of a Giant. Available: http://www.csis.msu.edu/Publication%20files/China_Environment_Globalization.pdf

Previous Scenarios

  1. http://www.weforum.org/pdf/scenarios/China_report.pdf
  2. http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_China_in_2020
  3. http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/08/01/8382233/index.htm
  4. http://www3.brookings.edu/views/articles/li200707.pdf

Recommended Reading

  1. Barton, D. 2004. Facing China. The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.
  2. Bekier, Matthias M., Richard Huang, and Gregory P. Wilson. 2005. How to fix China’s banking system. The McKinsey Quarterly 2005. Number 1.
  3. Bloom, Erik, Vincent de Wit, and Mary Jane Carangal-San Jose. 2005. Potential Economic Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic on Asia. ERD Policy Brief Series No. 42. Manila : Asian Development Bank. November.
  4. Brahm, Laurence J. 2001. China’s Century: The Awakening of the Next Economic Powerhouse. Singapore: John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.
  5. Chen, Kun, and Martin Kenney. 2005. University/Research Institute-Industry Linkages in Two Chinese Cities : Commercializing Technological Innovation. To be presented at “Universities as Drivers of the Urban Economies in Asia” sponsored by the World Bank and Social Research Council. 24-25 May.
  6. Courrier International. 2005. La Chine des Chinois. Hors-Série, Juin-Juillet-Août. France.
  7. Crane, Keith, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros, James Mulvenon, and William Overholt. 2005. Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints. RAND Corporation.
  8. Economy, Elizabeth C. 2004. The River Runs Black: The environmental challenge to China’s future. Ithaca & London: Cornell University Press.
  9. Hale, David (Hale Advisers, LLC). 2005. China’s Currency Conundrum. Central Banking Volume XVI No.1. London: Central Banking Publications.
  10. Smil, Vaclav. 2004. China’s Past, China’s Future: energy, food, environment. New York, NY and Great Britain : RoutledgeCurzon.
  11. UBS Securities Asia Ltd, UBS Investment Research. 2005. How to Think About China. Asian Economic Perspectives. Hong Kong. 6 January.
  12. Morgan Stanley Equity Research. 2004. New Tigers of Asia. India and China: A Special Economic Analysis. Asia/Pacific, 26 July.
  13. Orr, Gordon R. 2004. The aging of China. The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.
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