Future of the European Union in 2030

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Team Composition


Introduction



Research Questions

  1. What can cause the instability of the Euro?
  2. What bounds Europe together?
  3. What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?
  4. What is the definition of Europe?
  5. What is the Euro zone?
  6. Is Europe losing it's importance?
  7. What role does Africa play for Europe?
  8. Is there a chance of a power shift from UK, DE, FR to a new country/region in Europe?
  9. What is the history of the European Union?
  10. What are the main demographic characteristics of the EU?
  11. How is the European parliament elected?
  12. How is the European parliament structured?
  13. What are the main economic
  14. How do European inhabitants feel about the creation of the EU?
  15. Would EU disintegrate like the USSR?
  16. What will happen if Turkey is accepted as part of the EU?
  17. Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?
  18. In case the above is possible, what USA would do?
  19. How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements can influence the future of EU?
  20. European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?



Systems Diagram



Driving Forces

Political Driving Forces

  1. World Unification
  2. Threat of war

Technological Driving Forces

  1. Public attitude to science and technology
  2. Mobility
  3. Nanotechnology

Environmental Driving Forces

  1. Greenhouse gases emissions trading affecting production in the EU
  2. Scarcity of Water in the EU
  3. Increasing need to clean energy

Economic Driving Forces

  1. EU ambitions for economic growth, as expressed in the Lisbon Declaration.
  2. Threat of total financial meltdown

Societal Driving Forces

  1. EU view of itself – culturally diverse or seeking homogeneity – with the associated political implications
  2. Increasing Mobility
  3. Aging population
  4. Changes in Religion buildup of Europe


Scenarios

References

Scenario Reports

  1. NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary
  2. New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)
  3. European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)


Economic Reports

News & Other Sources

  1. Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios
  2. Economic Problems of European Union
  3. Immigration Problems in EU
  4. Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?
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