Proliferation of nuclear weapons

Description: The number of states which have nuclear weapons or are known to be developping them is raising. The world system to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons is being rapidly eroded, threatening a "cascade of proliferation".

Enablers: - Decreasing cost of the nuclear technology

- Change of worldwide military equilibrium

- Desire to have more politica influence

Inhibitors:

- UN agreement to regulamentate the development and use of nuclear weapons

- Development of a new technology able to inhibit nuclear weapons

- Regulamentation and control of the supply of fissile material

Paradigms:

-Before: Only the biggest military powers,with huge economic resources, had nuclears weapons

- Now: Small country, with limited economic resources, can aim to have nuclear weapons.

Experts:

Timing:

- 1963 Four staes have nuclear weapons

- 2004 Eight states have nuclear weapons, some more are suspected to have, and 60 countries operate or are building nuclear reactors.

Web resources:

[edit]Experts: [edit]Timing: [edit]Web Resources: Retrieved from "http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Driving_Forces_Template"