The future of the global economy in 2015

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search

Introduction


This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 3 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:

The future of the global economy in 2015

The members of Group 3 are:

  • Peter Groen
  • Wendi Mennen
  • Maarten Post
  • Harry Schoots
  • Eric Verbeek

Research Documentation

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/globalmacro/ which contains a link to an Economist article to get us started: Analysis: The Economist, Sep 06, 2005 The perfect storm.

http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/The_Future_of_the_Global_Village_in_2020 which contains a scenario of last years students.

http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html is the homepage of the National Intelligence Councel. Mapping the Global future is a useful report.

http://www.millenniumassessment.org is the homepage of the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment. Latest research of the MA states that environmental concerns increase opportunities and challenges for business that ultimately might influence the global economy.

http://t21.ca contains a selection of world global trends on different aspects based on many sources. http://t21.ca/economic/index.htm lists the economic key findings.

The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) performed a scenario analysis on the economic future of Europe, downloadable from http://www.cpb.nl/eng/econ/lange_termijn/recente_studies.html
Try also this report on Globalisation and the Global Environment: four quantitative scenarios: http://www.cpb.nl/nl/general/org/homepages/aml/gitage_si.pdf

The OECD published a study on the future of the global economy: The Future of Global Economy: Towards a long boom? http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/42/0/35394025.pdf

The CIA publishes facts of every country and region in the world. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html


Research Questions

Note to group: please add your research questions below.

ECONOMY
Asia

  • What is relative GDP to world economy?
  • Which countries drive the regional economy?
  • What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  • Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV)

Europe (incl E Eu & Russia)

  • What is relative GDP to world economy?
  • Which countries drive the regional economy?
  • What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  • Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV


Africa

  • What is relative GDP to world economy?
  • Which countries drive the regional economy?
  • What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  • Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV)


North America

  • What is relative GDP to world economy?
  • Which countries drive the regional economy?
  • What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  • Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV


South America

  • What is relative GDP to world economy?
  • Which countries drive the regional economy?
  • What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  • Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?(MP/EV)

Global

  • What are the trade balances between of the important economies? What is the size and trend in global trade?
  • What are the resource constraints with respect to economy? (in terms of natural resources)
  • What is the strength of the American Dollar compared to the Euro, Yen, Guan,...? Is it declining of increasing in the past 10 years?
  • What other forms of exchange (except) money are used or can be used?

Politics

  • What will be the role of the Central Banks (ECB, FED)to the economy? (in terms of 'mission statements')
  • What will the effect be of global terrorism on the economy?
  • How will the (in)stability of the Middle-Eastern states influence the global economy?
  • What will be the effect of the European Union on the global economy (if any)?

Society

  • What are the effects of the greying population in Europe to the economy?
  • What is the effect of the globalising on the economy?

Technology and business

  • What are the effects of off shoring production work?
  • What is the growth rate of E-commerce in the world?
  • How long does it take the OPEC countries to double their refinery capacity?
  • What is the effect of the oil prices on the economy
  • What are the effects of the reducing energy supply on the global economy?
  • How will technological development influence the future global economy?
Retrieved from "https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=The_future_of_the_global_economy_in_2015&oldid=6721"