Scenario 1: Hyper Personalized age

Description(!Work in progress!)

• Scenario Flow
  

2010 - 2013: Merger and Acquisition for expansion of scale and technology As world economy becomes globalized, the scale has been a critical factor for corporations to win in the market. Complying with this trend, corporations in varied industries accelerate the merger and acquisition strategy to achieve the scale merits. In manufacturing industry, corporations accomplish the lower production cost and more competitive sales and procurement channels, consequently lowering the product price. In advertising industry likewise, numerous integrations are observed. In addition to the scale merit, advertisement companies attempt to acquire the key technology to prosper in the future market. Increasing importance of the Information Technology, especially web advertising technology such as Google’s adwords, induces companies to choose the horizontal integrations.

2014 - 2017: Prevalence of technology to store personal information More intense R&D investments and higher efficiency generated through the merger and acquisitions in manufacturing industry results in prevailing varied new technologies that influence advertising business. IPv6 technology, which had been established for many years but not been commercialized due to the high production cost, is a good example. With IPv6, we can allocate IP address to electric devices at home and allow them to communicate each other. The technology potentially impacts on advertising industry since it stores the consumers’ life style information with which advertisers can directly deliver more advertisements matching each consumer’s interest. (See scenario 2020 for details) The lower production cost allows manufactures to embed IPv6 technology in their wide range of product line. Concurrently, home server system which manages electric devises at home while centralizing the personal log information storeed each device also starts being prevailed. Furthermore, under the post Kyoto protocol, governments introduce to households the smart grid technology that manages the home electricity utilization through its subsidizing policy. Smart grid can also send to the home server the consumers’ life style information such as the time they wake up and sleep or the time they cook or take a bath.

2017 - 2020: New business scheme opens the door to new advertising age Advertising companies with advanced IT competence developed the technology that interacts with home servers in each household. Through the system, the advertising companies are able to take in consumers’ personal information, including TV programs they watch, food stock in refrigerator, music they play, web sites they visit and so on, accurately analyze the personal interests and deliver the appropriate advertisements. (See scenario 2020 for details) However, increasing sensitivity to consumer privacy and critics from consumer organizations inhibit advertising companies from promoting the system. In a mean while, advertising companies overcome this situation with new business scheme where consumers are financially incentivized by providing their personal information. Consumers can receive adequate monetary value from advertising companies or obtain a high spec home server system for free in exchange of their personal information.

2020: Hyper personalized age As a result, more than 65% of consumers operate the home server under the incentive scheme. Home server manages almost all of the electric devices at home varying from TV to music plays, PC, mobile phones, automobiles, refrigerators, cooking system and smart energy system. Strong economic growth especially in emerging markets further encourages the penetration of home server system and the new business model. Now advertising companies can deliver the right advertisements at the right time to the right place. Personal information in the home server provides the highest degree of personal interests based on which advertisers can identify the most suitable advertisements. The real-time interactions with home servers allow advertising companies to select the most effective timing to send the advertisements. In particular, advertising companies are able to deliver the foot ball shop advertisements to those who spend more than 2 hours on watching foot ball matches per week and display them on the TV screen when they are actually watching matches on TV. Additionally, after analyzing the foods stock information from the refrigerators, advertising companies also send to the vehicles the grocery shop advertisements, showing foods necessary to buy, when consumers are driving back home from the office.

Driving Forces(!Work in progress!)

Economy

• Scale merit
• Increase in world GDP

Technology

• IPv6
• Smart grid

Policy

• Sustainable policy

Society

• Sensitivity to privacy