Shift to Alternative Energy Sources
Description:
The average oil- and natural gasoline prices have been increasing over the last decades. This is mainly attributable to the inevitable fact that one day these natural resources are depleted and the demand for oil is still rising, the cost of producing it and the prices for consumers will need to pay for it are extremely uncertain. Today, most of the capital goes to exploring for and developing high costs reserves , partly becaue of limitations of international oil company access to the cheapest resources. Expanding production in the lowest cost countries will be central to meeting the world's needs or seeking for alternative energy sources to keep up with the demand. As the demand for energy is still increasing. In the future we need an alternative energy source capable at satisfying this ever increasing demand and hedge the uncertainty of oil. These future prospects fuel the research done on alternative energy sources.
Enablers:
- Natural energy source depletion
- Current high prices of oil and gas
- Future power shift because of finding/controlling an alternative energy source.
- Kyoto potocol which regulate the CO2 emission
- Technical progress of fuel cell which produces energy using hydrogen specially in the field of stack, fuel converter and hydrogen container
- Technical progress of solar cell
- Increasing construction of the wind power plant
- Increasing construction of the tidal power plant
- Techncal development for geothermal power generation
- Developing a new process for converting agricultural and other organic wastes into energy
- Increasing public needs for environmental friendly energy source
- Limitations of international oil companies access to the cheapest oil resources
Inhibitors:
- Bad economy results in less money to spend on research on alternative energy.
- Public rejection of alternative energy source (nuclear energy).
- Finding many new rich oil- and gasoline areas.
- Technical barrier for developping new technology such as fuel cell, solar cell etc
- Security issues for using hydrogen
- High initail cost to buy fuel cell and solar cell system
- Insufficient Kyoto Teaty- The U.S didn't join
The ecomomy of CO2 quota is less efiecient
Paradigms:
Before, there was enough oil and gasoline for everyone. Now governments and oil and gasoline companies are breaking their minds on how to deal with the demand for energy in the future.
As everyone concerns for energy crisis, electronic companies started to develop the new technology to use alternative energy. Aternative energy source has been considered very expensive because people underevaluated invisible environmental cost caused by the use of current energy source. If governments keep strick policy for environmentalism, the cost of current resourecs will go up. Eventually people will realize the use of alternative resource is ecomomical.
Timing:
In 2050 only a few countries are capable of exporting oil and natural gasoline. This means that long before the prices have gone up and the public will demand an alternative energy source.
In 2015 sufficient technical advance will be realized for energy equipments which use alternative energy sources
Shell, Exxon, etc..
http://www.global-vision.org/wssd/index.html
http://www.fuelcellworld.org/article_default_list.fcm?section=1&subsite=1172