Driving forces - Industrial System

1. Availability of more eco-friendly materials Shubashree

Description : In today's world, the need of eco friendly material has never been more than before. It was always there but has significantly increased now. With new sustainable goals for countries and

Enablers: The rising environmental norms and uses of various SDGs getting embedded in corporate social responsibility reporting of companies has enforced many corporations toward incorporating eco-friendly materials. Also the incoming generations (millenials , genZ) are demanding the drive of more eco-friendly products in general.

Inhibitors: The cost of eco-friendly materials and its impact on price of final product can be one of the reasons which make manufacturing challenged. Furthermore, many a times the technology or rather the lack of technology to create or have a sustainable source of eco-friendly material is a major inhibitor. Also we need more investments and scientific experts collaborating and working in this field.

Paradigms: The millennial and GenZ need to have sustainable products.

Availability of more eco-friendly materials - Subhashree - ScenarioThinking

2. Increase of consumer awareness on environmental issues Antje https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Increase_of_consumer_awareness_on_environmental_issues

Description: An increasing part of the population is considering more sustainable behaviours and is mindful on their impact on the environment. This is not only theoretical awareness, but also more and more people are willing to take personal action to combat environmental and sustainability issues and take according decisions.

Enablers: Social media Easy access to information (internet) Measurability of environmental change Green governments The pandemic Growing wealth

Inhibitors: Fake news Conspiracy theories Convenience Habits

Paradigms: Establishment of an environmental awareness month; growing google search statistics on environmental topics; increasing news on environmental topics; increasing demand on eco-friendly consumer goods

Experts: Green party members Environmental activists Environmental physicist Statistician

Timing: Since around 2000

Resources: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/sustainability-strategies-international/environmental-awareness-in-germany https://www.mastercard.com/news/research-reports/2021/consumer-attitudes-environment/ https://www.climateaction.org/news/wwf-huge-rise-in-demand-for-sustainable-goods-during-pandemic https://www.charities.org/news/environmental-awareness-month

3. Availability of new manufacturing technologies (3D printing, automation, robotics) Antje https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Availability_of_new_manufacturing_technologies_(3D_printing,_automation,_robotics)

Description: The deployment of innovative manufacturing technology is constantly rising, and workflows are constantly further optimized and automized.

Enablers: Digitalization Technological invention More effective human-machine interfaces The internet of things

Inhibitors: Labour protection organizations Supply chain scarcity for chips

Paradigms: Increasing material diversity for 3D printing; constant rise in production efficiency;

Experts: Technicians Engineers IT experts

Timing: Since around 1990

Resources: https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/future-of-work/trends/WCMS_555548/lang--en/index.htm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3D_printing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automation

4. Availability of technology to optimize supply chains in different respects – time, cost, CO2,... Tobi

5. Growth Markets have the opportunity to learn from existing consumer markets and ‘leapfrog’. Erik https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Growth_markets_leap-frog_Western_economies_-_Erik_Jongbloed

Description: Growing economies that transition from a production society into a consumer society do so in a different era compared to their Western peers. Wellbeing and quality of life in urban areas are more important and receive greater attention from policymakers, allowing these countries to make a ‘green transition’ as opposed to a ‘grey transition’. Culturally, individualism and short-term orientation in these markets is lower compared to western societies, allowing these economies to adopt new methodologies and frameworks that propel sustainable growth.

Enablers; The evolution of the role of the consumer, Growth of the middle class in the eastern hemisphere, Rebalance of geo-political power, Convergence of business and politics, Crisis of capitalism.

Inhibitors; Family and community wellbeing are highly valued, and congestion and air quality in urban area’s are important concerns for policy makers. Knowledge distribution through digital tools increases speed of adoption of new trends; for example the implementation of true omnichannel propositions and construction projects that are developed and used as a blueprint for rapid roll-out to other cities.

Paradigms; Digitalization of manufacturing processes. Shift of focus from individualist capitalism to societal wellbeing.

Experts; Kishore Mahbubani Xiaoqin Zhang

Timing; 2015 - 2025

Web Resources; https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/21582440211013780 https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/tir2020_en.pdf

6. Supply chain transparency Erik https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Towards_supply_chain_transparency_-_Erik_Jongbloed

Description: With the increase of the ‘power of the consumer’ and the increased concerns about the environmental impact of consumption patterns in the advanced societies, companies are increasingly challenged on their ESG impact and performance. Origins of ingredients and methods of construction and manufacturing are scrutinized and publicly evaluated – and even lead to boycotting and serious reputational damage for organizations. Technological developments and advances in digital communication allow for a more activist stance against those organizations that do not make visible efforts to act responsible.

Enablers; Blockchain technology allow consumers to track exactly where components of products originate from. Digital communication technology. Awareness of the impact that organizations have on the environment (in the broadest sense of the word).

Inhibitors; Global versus local sourcing and supply chain management. Transparency versus competitive advantage.

Paradigms; Shift from Supply chain and manufacturing as a means of competitive advantage towards Distribution. The power and influence of consumers and reputational risk.

Experts; Patagonia Nike

Timing; 2015 - 2030

Web Resources; https://hbr.org/2019/08/what-supply-chain-transparency-really-means https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JMTM-03-2019-0118/full/html?skipTracking=true&utm_source=TrendMD&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Journal_of_Manufacturing_Technology_Management_TrendMD_0&WT.mc_id=Emerald_TrendMD_0

7. Labor and skill availability Tobi

8. Driving force: The rise in automation effecting the manufacturing labor force Thalia https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=A_Rise_in_Automation_Effecting_the_Manufacturing_Labor_Force_-_Thalia_Fry

Description: As AI and IOT technologies transform manufacturing as well know it today, there is great potential for increased automation in manufacturing to displace workers. It has been found that nearly half of paid activities and tasks could be automated. Additionally, automation would also have a positive effect on industrial productivity and fuel economic growth. 30 percent of hours worked globally could be automated by 2030 – which would have a dramatic effect on the global labor force who specialize in manufacturing.

Enablers: The automation industry is projected to increase at a CAGR of 9% between 2021 and 2028. This growth is projected based on the emphasis on process automation, which is designed to minimize costs and human labor by proxy. Corporations are increasingly more interested in adopting robotic assistance to mass produce products.

Inhibitors: There are some tasks that still will require a human touch, and in this way it would not be possible to fully replace a factory with robots. Where creativity and complex problem solving are needed, process robots are not advanced enough to replace a human. In addition, while AI may displace some jobs, this industry will also create a host of new jobs to help support AI growth and development across the manufacturing industry.

Paradigms:

Old: Number of staff would shift to produce as much as possible prior to automation

New:Today robots can produce with demand (not at max volume, but rather, a more precise demand) while lowering labor costs with fewer workers on site.

Experts: Jonathan Tilley

Timing: 2021 - 2028

Web Resources:

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/industrial-automation-market https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2019/01/17/the-alleged-threat-of-ai-taking-away-human-jobs-is-not-what-we-think-it-is/ https://www.valuetransform.com/automation-paradigm-shift/

9. Driving force: Scarcity of Natural Resources Thalia https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Scarcity_of_Natural_Resources_-_Thalia_Fry

Description: As global warming persists; it is possible that resource scarcity could have large impactions on the global industrial system. As population grows, so does demand for products comprised of resources in danger of scarcity. Some scarce materials used in many products include metals, minerals, and fossil resources, which cannot be created by humans, only by way of mining the earth. In addition, water and mineral-rich soil are in danger of scarcity due to climate change and agricultural pollutants. Should we run out of such resources, manufacturers could not sustain mass production as they do today. In this instance, prices of mass-produced goods utilizing precious natural resources would soar, causing a global economic disruption.

Enablers: Supply scarcity can be attributed to crop failures due to changes in weather, or if a natural resource has been polluted or tainted by its enviroment. Over mining of oil and metals that cannot be replicated are eventually likely as there is a limited reserve of such substances on earth.

Inhibitors: Smart factories allow for the most efficient uses of raw materials, which would translate to an emphasis on sustainability and cost reduction. Alternative metals and materials are in the process of being developed to aid this issue.

Paradigms:

Old: Climate change and resource scarcity is not a concern.

New: Alternative fuels are in development to combat resource scarcity

Experts: Dave Young, Rich Hutchinson and Martin Reeves

Timing: 2021 - 2030

Web Resources:

https://www.kuka.com/en-de/future-production/sfpl/megatrends/scarcity-of-resources https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/151207/economics/causes-of-resource-scarcity/ https://media.rff.org/documents/RFF-IB-00-tahvonen.pdf https://hbr.org/2021/07/the-green-economy-has-a-resource-scarcity-problem

10. Economic shift ( from 3rd world economy to 1st world economy) Shubashree

Description: The 21st century could very well turn in to the century where the US loses its status as the ultimate economic superpower of the world, such is the size of the economic powerhouse being built in and around China. Driven by strong growth in emerging countries, an economic power shift from west to east is taking place. This shift has been going on for a while and will reach a new high point around 2010’s. The transition into manufacturing became a key piece of Asia’s development in a context of export-led growth, where Asian companies saw the whole world as their market. The average growth rate of the developed markets is between 0.1-0.2 percentage points per annum for the period to 2050. For developing countries the growth rate is on average more than 3-4% per annum. China’s astonishingly rapid rise to great-power status, both militarily and economically. In the economic realm, the International Monetary Fund forecasts that China’s share of world GDP (15 percent) will draw nearly even with the U.S. share (18 percent) by 2014. Until the late 1960s, the United States was the world’s dominant manufacturing power. Today, it has become essentially a rentier economy.

Enablers: The key enablers especially are: affordable labour and access to manpower. To add on it, availability of youth is high since the east is growing and west has more aging population Capitalism and getting most profits for the industries have made them shift manufacturing toward emerging markets in east.

Inhibitors: The feedback of this effect has been the rise in nationalism in west especially in US and UK. This is because the rise of east as led to shutting of industries and people’s livelihood especially the unskilled labour.

Paradigm: Globalization and rise of internet accelerated the world trace and economy. It also made the world more connected and accessible which fueled the manufacturing sector to become more global or gave remote access.

Timing: 1990's onwards

Web Resources: https://issafrica.org/chapter-2-megatrend-one-the-global-shift-of-power-from-west-to-east https://www.pwc.nl/en/topics/megatrends/economy.html https://www.managementstudyguide.com/paradigm-shift-in-global-economy.html https://nationalinterest.org/article/the-global-power-shift-west-east-6796

Shift in economic power from west to east- Subhashree - ScenarioThinking

11. Economics of waste Antje https://www.scenariothinking.org:10443/index.php?title=Economics_of_Waste

Description: Waste collection charges vary according to the quantity and quality of waste that households set out for collection and can provide important incentives for waste prevention and recycling. However, such schemes could also lead to more illegal waste disposal, as well as to relatively costly separate collection systems to function well.

Enablers: Government, Municipalities, Society, Environmental organizations

Inhibitors: Competing stakeholders in the economy of waste like recycle firms, countries that import waste

Paradigms: An economy of waste creates incentives to produce waste (for those who make money with waste); those who have to pay for getting ride of waste will have an incentive to dispose it illegal

Experts: Recycling industry, Garbage collection industry, Regulatory body, Tax authorities

Timing: Since around 1970

Resources: https://www.oecd.org/env/waste/economicsofwaste.htm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pay_as_you_throw https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waste_management_law