A Lost Purpose

Overview

Although the main parties joining the climate change negotitation meetings are the representatives from each countires, other driving forces, such as Catastrophes - Acts of God and Dynamics of Public Support, also play important roles in this scenario.

2010-2013

In 2010 negotiations,we might see the situation that there is no big agreement made but the balance of power to make agreements shifts to few powerful countries - EU, US, and China. In the same period, huge public and media preasure drive countries to take minor steps of climate change policies rather than major decisions to commit the goal of resonable GHG emission reduction amount.

Accroding to IPCC report issued in 2010, the global climate will continue increasing since there is only EU and other countries with minor negotiation power taking the responsibility to reduce GHG emission according to the goals set in the COP16 and CMP6 conferences from 29 November-10 December 2010 in Cancun, Mexico. However, during 2010~2013, the numbers of catastrophes happened will increase dramatically, like the non-stoping rising sea level threaten the securities of island countires (ex Netherlands and UK), and the hugh amouts of economical losses in these catastrophes alarm most of the public, NGO, and media in the world. This louder and louder voice forces some major developed countires to sign inefficient GHG emission reduction agreements. For example, US president election will be held in 2012, and US governemtn might approve several minor climate change policies in COP16& CMP6 conferences in order to compromise public pressure, but the emission reduction target can have little effect to ease the increasing climate; EU might still provide funds to support developing countries in order to puch these developing countries to reduce 20% GHG emission in each year; Several serious catastrophes happened in China might let China to commit a higher GHG emission limit.

In the this period, main countries, including EU, US, and China, will focus on green technology innovation and developing. The green technology investment amount from China will still be the largest green technology investment since 2009.

2014-2018

The results of climate negociation conference in 2018 will be quite positive because the situation of clime change gets worse according to IPCC report issued in 2018 and because more and more catastrophes directly threaten people's lives. NGO with Media will become the auditor in climate change issues.