Future of China in 2020

===Introduction===

This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 2 of class DGM EMBA-06 on the following subject:
The future of the China in 2020

The members of Group 2 are:

• Kim, Sung Min
  
• Park, Seok Kwang
  
• Lee, In Ku
  
• Choi, Byoung Tae
  
• Choi, Hyeon Cheol
  
• Hwang, Keon Young
  

===Group Work===

1. Systems Diagram

2. 20 Research Questions & Answers

(1)What is the strength of the china yuan compared with the US dollar?

Fixed exchange rate system of yuan could keep a domestic price stabilization and protectthe uncertainty of international payments by short term investment money

(2)Whether the Olympic games of china will be successful or not in terms of economic of china?

Through Beijing Olympic game, it will be expected that the investment for infrastructures over 1.5 zillion yuan and the increase of consumption and the job creation over a million. It will be one of the the most successful Olympic games economically.

(3)What will become of china’s GDP in 2020?

China’s GDP will be 4.0 zillion dollars similar to Japan and lead the Asian economy

(4)How to reduce the gap between poor and rich in china?

The solution to this problem lies in the adoption of a steeper, graduated tax, taxing the rich more and the poor less. We had this many years ago in the developed country, and it was fairly effective in maintaining an equilibrium among the economic groups.

(5)How to deal with the pollutions by many factories and vehicles?

They have try to develop and utilize technologies to solve the major environmental challenges it is currently facing and will face in the future. These efforts will be focus on technologies that will treat wastewater, prevent air pollution and improve environmental monitoring systems.

(6)Is it possible for Chinese economy to be mired in depression?

In case of over capacity due to excessive investment, Chinese economy can fall into depression.

(7)Do the alliances (with foreign capital) help the Chinese companies to strengthen their competitiveness?

They may enjoy some advantages of the alliances for a time such as increase of market share and acquirement of advanced technology. However, Chinese companies should take a risk of retrieving investment and failing in playing in global market with their brands, which are unknown in overseas’ markets.

(8)How does the intellectual property(IP) Chinese companies?

When the companies are local players, the IP didn’t seem to be serious barrier to them. As the globalization is in progress, the IP become critical factor for the companies which want to be more competitive. For the Chinese companies, the lack of competitiveness in IP will be weak point for a while as far as they play in global stage.

(9)How long can the low-wage laborer market be an advantage to Chinese companies?

Labor intensive industries and the low value added products related industries, which require unskilled and uneducated laborers, can enjoy the advantage from it. The more advanced industries in technology as well as finance the companies move into, the more technical experts and highly educated workers Chinese companies would require. Therefore, they should experience weakening their competitiveness until recruiting the experts.

(10)How big is the influence of strengthening the competitiveness of Chinese companies?

Currently, Chinese economy skyrocket due to the cost advantage from low wage laborers. The check from neighboring countries will be the barriers to Chinese economic growth.

===Group Work===
1. Driving Forces

Host to the 2008 Olympic Games Beijing,china

Elimination the gap between poor and rich in china

Affective Issues on China Economy