Decline in Ethnic Integration in The Netherlands

Description:

1.1 The % of non-Western allochtones as part of the Dutch population is forecast to increase from 10.4% (2004) to 16.6% in 2050
1.2 This allochtone growth has historically been concentrated in Big4 cities: the % of allochtones in these cities increased from 36% (1995) to 43% (2004)
1.3 Within Big4 cities, concentration and segregation of non-Western allochtone neighbourhoods has increased
1.4 Consequently and if this pattern continues, the anticipated growth in % of non-Western allochtones can be expected to result in growing concentration and segregation in the Big4 cities. We conclude that this will thus result in a decline in ethnic integration.

The majority of non-Western allochtones is living in the Randstad, i.e. mainly in Big4 cities. The overall percentage of allochtones in Big 4 cities has grown from 36% (1995) to 43%, of which 31 percentage-points are non-Western allochtones (2003) {Forum.nl}. Furthermore, the ethnic concentration of non-Western allochtones within these cities has increased: in 2004, c. 10% of neighbourhoods in Big 4 cities comprises > 50% non-Western allochtones {CPB}.

Enablers:

• Availaility of low-cost housing for immigrants in non-black neighbourhoods
  
• Dutch Language courses and social training for immigrants to enable communication with non-immigrants
  
• Legislation to prevent Asylum and economic migration (both are actually expected to decline over time)
  

Inhibitors:

• Family reunions and higher birth rates of allochtones from poorer/rural areas with low education levels nad low incomes
  
• Limited job opportunities nor training/education opportunities to grow and live beyond segregated neighbourhoods
  

Paradigms:

Mainly, the % of non-western allochtones in The Netherlands is expected to increase from 10.4% (2005) to 16.6% in 2050, while the % of autochtones is expected to decrease from 80.9% to 70.3% during this period (CPB). If these allochtones would settle in (concetrated areas within) the big RAndstad cities as has happened historically, and if the size of these big4 cities would remain fairly stable, this would result in an increase of non-western allochtones in these cities from 43% (2004) to c. 70% (2050) i.e. c. 55% in 2025. More than half of the big4 cities could thus be of non-western origin who would be living in segregated/cocnetrated neighbourhoods (which are prone to less social cohesion, social degeneration and increases in social nuisances).

Experts:

• CPB
  
• CBS
  
• AIVD

Timing:

Non western allochtones in The Netherlands are expected to increase from 10.4% (2004) until 16.6% in 2050: autocthones are expected to decline from 80.9% to 70.3% during this period