The future of the global economy in 2015

Introduction

This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 3 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:

The future of the global economy in 2015

The members of Group 3 are:

• Peter Groen
• Wendi Mennen
• Maarten Post
• Harry Schoots
• Eric Verbeek

Research Documentation

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/globalmacro/ which contains a link to an Economist article to get us started: Analysis: The Economist, Sep 06, 2005 The perfect storm.

http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/The_Future_of_the_Global_Village_in_2020 which contains a scenario of last years students.

http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html is the homepage of the National Intelligence Councel. Mapping the Global future is a useful report.

Research Questions

Note to group: please add your research questions below.

ECONOMY

• Which countries drive the asian economy?
  
• Are the economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?
  
• What are the trade balances of the major economies in asia, for example China and India?
  
• Which countries drive the african econmy?
  
• Are the economies increasing in terms of GDP, and how rapidly?
  
• What are the trade balances of some of the important economies in africa?
  
• Which countries drive the south and middle america econmy?
  
• Are the economies in south and middle america increasing in terms of GDP, and how rapidly?
  
• What are the trade balances of some of the important economies in south and middle america?
  
• What is GDP in the USA , and what is the increase factor?
  
• What is the trade balance in the USA, and how is this balanced?
  
• Which countries drive the European economies (including Russia)?
  
• What is the GDP of the European countries, and what is the increase factor?
  
• What is the trade balance of these European countries?
  
• What are the resource constraints of the future economy?
  
• What are the resource constraints of China, India, US, Europe, South America, and Africa?
  
• What is the strenght of the American Dollar compared to the Euro, Yen, Guan,...? Is it declining of increasing in the past 10 years?
  

Politics

• What will be the role of the Central Banks (ECB, FED)to the economy?
  
• What will the effect be of terrorism on the economy?

Society

• What are the effects of the greying population in Europe to the economy?
  

Technology and business

• What are the effects of off shoring production work?
• What is the growth rate of E-commerce in the world?
• How long does it take the OPEC countries to double their refinery capacity?