Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015

To start our scenario process we shall look at the scope of the uncertainties, define our research questions and answer them for our next class on 26 May.

• aSSIST 2005 Group 1 Uncertainties
• aSSIST 2005 Group 2 Uncertainties
• aSSIST 2005 Group 3 Uncertainties
• aSSIST 2005 Group 4 Uncertainties

Note: A good source is also the CIA's conference on the future of North Korea done in 2001. the report is visible here

Driving Forces

Here we will list Driving Forces that are specific to the process to understand the future of the Korean peninsula in 2015+

Please remember to be specific and indicate movement (whether it is growing or declining). For Example:

 BAD - Anti-Americanism
 BETTER - Anti-Americanism in Korea
 BEST - Increase of Anti-Americanism in Korea

Political

• The Sino-U.S. rivalry <---please read the instructions above!

• Pax Americana <---please read the instructions above!

• Nationalism <---please read the instructions above!

• Incresing influence of US polices on South Korea polices - Group 4

• Incresing importance of North Korea situation to South Korea - Group 4

• continuation of Kim Jung Il's attempt to sustain his regime - Group 1

• the nature of divided penninsula between DPRK and ROK - Group 1

• historical experience of Japan's colonization and ambition - Group 1

• creation of Korea-US tight relationship since Korean war - Group 1

• increase in notion of pax-americana - america's sole pre-eminence - Group 1

Economic

• Globalization

• Increasing dependency of S.K economy on exporting - Group 4

• More opening of S.K economy to the world - Group 4

• Europe and Japan began to compete effectively with the U.S - Group 2

• As North Korea meets the limits of economice development they try to accept inter-korean Economic Cooperation - Group 2

• The prolonged economic slump has discouraged people from moving to other residential areas - Group 2

• increasing globalization of Korean economy- Group 1

• no source of oil in korea- Group 1

• 2008 Beijing Olympics in China - Group 3

• FTA - Group 3

• Bipolarity in wealth - Group 3

• Economic Alignment with North Korea - Group 3

Societal

• Increasing Women's right in South Korea - Group 4

• South Korea society is going to western style demographic population - Group 4

• Seoul's becoming of mega city - Group 1

• decrease in confucius value in ROK - Group 1

Technological

• South Korea's tech competence is on the high skilled HR and high applied science - Group 4

• South Korea's tech competence is on the IT & digital industry - Group 4

• increase in availability of cheap broadband internet in ROK - Group 1

• Stem cell technology - Group 3

Environmental

• Materialism

• Increasing relation between S.K economey and environmental issue - Group 4

• shortage of land in korean penninsula - Group 1

• Water Shortage - Group 3

• Energy Crisis - Group 3

As a reference you can look at example uncertainties,research questions, driving forces and scenarios developed on a WIKI:

LIACS Scenarios 2005

Leiden University ICT in Business Post Graduate course scenarios.

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