Learning Log Harro van Doorn

Learning Log Scenario Thinking Harro van Doorn

Introduction

Mmm.. Four lectures of scenario planning. It hardly seems worth the time. During 4 lectures and 4 workshops I learned the basic skills of Scenario Planning. Looking at uncertainties, thinking of driving forces, creating system maps and writing scenarios. Finally all our work got rewarded with a bottle of champagne, so I guess we did alright!

Business Evaluation

Before starting this study, I have accomplished four years of studying Information Engineering. In this study I learned a lot about getting, using and saving data. And transforming data into information.

Apart from the knowledge I acquired there, I did 6 internships of 6 months. So I have quite some business experience. My last internship was with Vodafone second biggest competitor in the mobile data market.

Comparing my business experience and class experience I come to the conclusion that scenario thinking, in my view, is not a tool to be able to look at the future. I more have the feeling that scenario thinking is first of all a great way to get people to talk to each other, be able to express all idea’s and be open to other ideas. For me scenario thinking has a lot of linkage to well known brainstorming models.

Within this internship we had to make a decision whether we would/will enter the mobile data market with certain products. There the decision was made based upon a report of some experts in this field. Then it already struck me as strange not to use the knowledge of the marketing department or account managers. It seems there was a general consensus that knowledge is generated by experts only.

Scenario thinking has taught me, that with a system map and some brainstorming, messy post-it pasting sessions you can get a real good view on the knowledge that is not available. This will give a clear direction for research to be conducted. This does not mean to throw away the experts reports, but use them as one of the information sources, not per se “the source”.

In my future business life I think I might use scenario thinking to get a team involved on a decision. It’s remarkable of how much knowledge 5 people with seemingly hardly any knowledge about software development can generate!

My last point on the business matter is one of concern. I am wondering if these processes don’t take up to much recourses and time within a company. I can image a CEO having a viewpoint of: “Scenario thinking? That takes to much time! Just ask the experts!”

Personal Evaluation

For me this was first of all a very learn full experience. I do not have the feeling that I have learned a lot of pure theoretical knowledge. But I do acquired useful skills in dealing with people and brainstorm sessions. It is remarkable how 5 different people can have 5 totally opposite views on the same issue. Seeing how this then transforms into one mutual viewpoint, from there on 4 scenarios was a great experience.

I already had experience with brainstorming by post-its and every time is results in the same thing: mess and chaos! For the first time I was told that chaos and mess were okay! I have worked in environments where post-its were used, but always with some confining structures which limits your brainwaves. Certain topics were not to be discussed; certain topics were by definition outside the current scope. This always led to a decrease in creativity.

Daniel Erasmus has a relaxing way of sharing knowledge. In a fun, and almost playful setting he elaborates on the important issue’s of scenario thinking and this made the course a pleasant experience.

I can see myself using the scenario thinking approach (uncertainties, driving forces, system map, key-uncertainties -> scenario) more often, although maybe tuned towards a specific situation. The whole idea of looking at things you don’t know, in stead of using what you DO know as starting point is definitely an important learning point for me.