The Future of Hospitals in Amsterdam in 2020

MBA09 team:
Peter Hoppesteyn
Roel Kock
Piotr Ptasinski
Miranda Tjiang
Marjoleine van der Zwan

Introduction

• Will we all have access to hospital care in Amsterdam in 2020, or do we have to travel to Utrecht or Brussels or The Bahamas for specific care?
  

• Will we live longer and have higher demands for quality?
  

• Will technology and ICT continue to devolope at high speed?
  

• How can health care be finances in 2020?
  

• Will The Netherlands be a province of the European Union by 2020?
  

• Are the negotiators from the health insurance cmpanies taken over by European ones or even Azian or American?
  

Who knows. Everything was more or less possible when we started this eight weeks parttime project.

In order to investigate the different possibilities we researched literature, had interviews with three executives (CEO, Planning & Control, Construction) and were coached by our professor Erasmus.

These sources of information form the basis under the four scenarios of the future of hospitals in Amsterdam in 2020:

1. Transsensual
2. Unsolidarity?
3. The health community system
4. All together now

Research Questions

Starting point for the research questions:

---

---

Research Questions

---

1. What is the hospital capacity in Amsterdam and The Netherlands?
2. Which differentiations are there at the moment?
3. Which stakeholders are known in health care?
4. What is the demand?
5. What are the trends?
6. How is the health care financed?


........

<Graag aanvullen>

These research questions led to the development of the driving forces. These driving forces can be found under the link Driving forces.

To get more real life insights and reflection on our perceptions interviews were planned with 3 professionals and a coaching sessions with the professor.
The following preparations are done for the interviews. The reports of the interviews can be read under the topic interviews.

---

Interview Questions

---

1. Which developments were the most impressive to you over the last 15 years?
2. Which developments will have the most impact on your hospital over the next 10 years?
3. Which developments do you see in Amsterdam?

a.	Which of these developments have a potential impact on hospitals? 

b.	Which developments outside The Netherlands have a potential impact on hospitals? 

c.	Which developments deserve more attention and/of investigation? Why? 

4. What are the biggest changes for your hospital in the short time (up till 2 years)?
5. What are the biggest opportunities and threats for your hospital between now and 5 years?

For example: 

a.	How will prevention and home health care change demand and how is the hospital going to prepare for these changes? 

b.	How is aging affecting the hospital care? When is it the highest impact expected in Amsterdam and in The Netherlands? 

c.	Regarding transplantations: what is the need? What is the impact on your hospital? 

6. A trend in society is “custom made”; how is your hospital adapting to that trend?
7. What are the major technological developments and which of them will have the biggest impact on health care in the coming years?
8. For which trends is the hospital preparing?
9. What do you think hospital care looks like in 2020?
10. What needs to be changed in 2020?
11. Will there be the same players?
12. What shifts do you expect the coming years?
13. Will there be a shift in focus?
14. Is there enough hospital capacity in 2020? If not, how big is the over- or under capacity?
15. Do you expect other demands or changes in health care due to the multiplicity of cultures in Amsterdam in 2020?
16. What differences in health care do you expect in Amsterdam compared to the rest of the Netherlands?

Driving forces

• Innovation in health care
• Accessibility of hospitals in Amsterdam
• Biometrics
• Aging population
• Low cost of internet connections
• Continuously growing demand for new medical applications
• Consumer health informatics in the information age
• Emergence of new Technology Related Diseases
• Increasing empowerment of consumers
• Increasing Neglect of the Elderly
• Medicine
• Religion
• Segmentation
• Number of people in Amsterdam
• Number of visitors in Amsterdam
• Financing and costs of the Dutch health care system
• The power of insurance companies in health care
• Decrease Labor productivity in health care
• Impact of Social and Cultural Differences in Healthcare

Summary of Interviews

In order to support the development of the scenarios, the team has visited one of the main hospitals in Amsterdam. The following persons have been intervied during this visit:

• Interview with the chairman of the board of management
  
• Interview with the financial controller
  
• Interview with the responsible manager for housing and buildings
  

System Diagrams

Systems Diagram: first version



Systems Diagram: final version

Scenarios

1. Transsensual
2. Unsolidarity?
3. The health community system
4. All together now

Resources

• Ministry of Health Welfare and Sports
  
• Dutch Healthcare Authority
  
• SLAZ
  
• Academisch Medisch Centrum
  
• [http://www.wikipedia.nl Wikipedia
  
• Obesitas
  
• RIVM
  
• Centraal Plan Bureau
  
• Amsterdam
  
• Centraal Bureau voor Statistiek
  
• NICTIZ