Future of China in 2030: An Inconvenient Truth

Introduction

Environmental disaster

2009 - 2015

Given the amount of awareness of the change in global climate and the extensive global media coverage, it was hard to believe that the 2009 Copenhagen environmental talks could have gone as badly as they did. Fears rooted in the global recession and its implications led China to waver at the last minute on their recently announced emissions reduction plan and ask for renegotiations of the environmental targets. Emphasising its status as a developing country, China continued to insist that the rich industrial nations should finance any environmental efforts made within China. The United States, in continued frustration, decided to withdraw from the talks and yet again no real consensus or agreement was reached. The Chinese delegation returned to China and the Communist party continued its narrow focused attempts to put the Chinese economy back on track through heavy infrastructure investment. While doing so it also further solidified their position of power. China continued to produce and export mass amounts of affordable consumer goods and with no global environmental agreements, international consumers were only too happy to continue consuming these products.

As the world lumbered out of the global recession in 2010 and 2011, demand for Chinese exports grew and the economy once again began to flourish. Household incomes rose and urbanization increased as many Chinese migrated to coastal cities to find work. This in turn led to further increases in the number of households and massive increases in consumption. Electricity demands were repeatedly met by the introduction of new coal power plants, burning domestically produced coal which is known as the dirtiest coal in the world. In 2012, with 300 million people without access to clean drinking water and 400 million living in areas with dangerously high levels of air pollution, the number of environmental complaints and protests increased. The government’s attempts at environmental policy were seen as weak and unfocused, and were largely disregarded, especially in areas where there was fear that economic growth would be dampened.

No later than 2013, the destructive effects of the industrial sector’s intense resource consumption became more noticeable. The rate of desertification of the north and western areas of Xinjiang Uyghur, Ningxia Hui, and Inner Mongolia began to show a marked increase. At the same time, limited freshwater resources were quickly diminishing, drying up, or facing contamination from industrial and urban waste; made all the worse by general mismanagement and lack of public awareness. The amount of arable land available for food production had decreased noticeably. Acid rain and air pollution reached levels never before seen and had started to take a noticeable toll on the population’s health.

In 2015 the first major dust storms hit Shenzhen and Hong Kong causing major disruptions in the city and practically paralyzing economic activity for several days. Subsequent, ever intensifying sandstorms from the northern and western autonomous regions swept across the country, with dust clouds reported as being carried as far as the western United States. As more land became unliveable and as the country became more frequently plagued by natural disasters, major migration of population had begun, directed at coastal cities in the East. The population of these cities swelled dramatically. The food supply was strained and prices started to skyrocket.

2016 - 2020

The chain of disasters did not stop. By 2017 the large northern cities of Dalian, Tianjin and Qingdao suffered severe water shortages. In a desperate attempt to combat the food shortage, the government had even attempted to grow rice harvests using some of the water that was less polluted, however the results were fleeting at best as crops failed and the food was not edible. There was increased migration throughout the country as people searched for regions with more resources. This migration, overcrowding, and a growing sense of desperation led to violent crime.

In 2019 the Chinese government announced a national rescue plan, promising safe haven in the eastern part of the country for those most affected by environmental disasters. This program, although perceived as a "rescue" by the communist party, lead to severe socio-political implications. The western part of the land became isolated and abandoned, while the east became a giant conurbation.

2021 - 2025

By 2021 China's population disparity became grossly imbalanced and as the east was challenged by the increased population and economic activity, the west had gone "wild". Large protests arose, uniting people behind individual interest groups resulting in local disputes over resources. The continuous aging of the population, as result of the long enforced one-child policy, exacerbated the imbalance between the needs of different groups. While the older generation was weakened and experiencing a higher than average mortality rate, the younger generation had simply become focused on trying to find food and water. Government corruption was at an all time high, as government officials readily accepted bribes in exchange for access to food and water. The increasing hunger and mismanagement of the food supply had started to become increasingly apparent to the rest of the world as many NGOs and aid organizations clashed with the government over attempts to help the suffering population.

2026 - 2030

By 2026, the Chinese economy was paralysed as the vast majority of the population was more concerned with survival than with economic growth. Factories lay empty and production came to a standstill, hindering the Chinese ability to invest in social solutions. As migration continued, disease spread through the completely overcrowded cities, tensions reached a boiling point and localized armed conflict began over access to resources in the west. While world gaze was at Nepal, who feared a Chinese invasion in the pursuit of Himalayan water resources, the majority of the People’s Liberation Army was actually unavailable, as it was involved in domestic policing and quelling the conflicts raging throughout the country. The rest of the world, too focused on their own environmental problems, did nothing but watch as China slowly ripped itself apart. By 2030 China's landscape was facing a new reality. The nation have been divided to two major parts – the remnants of the People’s Republic concentrated in the east and trying to survive and a west which was best described as an anarchy zone. With a continuous survival war, China was no longer a global power but was drawn back into an underdeveloped state.