New Finds

Executive Summary

- Known Reserves range from 1-4 trillion barrels - Annual New finds range from 10-30 billion barrels - Annual Consumption in 2008 is 30 billion barrels

Background

The peak of oil discoveries was in 1965, and oil production per year has surpassed oil discoveries every year since 1980 [2] - By 2015, growth in the production of easily accessible oil and gas will not match the projected rate of demand growth.[3] - USA Today in 2004: there were 40 years of petroleum left in the ground. As similar statements have been made in the 40 previous years, it hardly carries the complex situation.[2]

Current estimates of total reserves (known + unknown)

2005 total proven oil reserves of crude oil +/- 2 trillion barrels [6] The world at large consumes 30 billion barrels (4.8 km³) of oil per year[2]

Conventional: 1.8 trillion barrels - The top three oil producing countries are Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States. About 80% of the world's readily accessible reserves are located in the Middle East, with 62.5% coming from the Arab 5: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait.[2] - Oil shale - is rare - found only in a few select countries. Places like China, Brazil, Estonia, Morocco, and Australia. [6]

Unconventional: - Tar sands (bitumen) Canada, Extra heavy oil Venezuela. Together 3.6 trillion barrels (570 ×109 m3) [2] - A large portion of the world's total oil exists as unconventional sources, such as bitumen in Canada and Venezuela and oil shale. While significant volumes of oil are extracted from oil sands, particularly in Canada, logistical and technical hurdles remain, and Canada's oil sands are not expected to provide more than a few million barrels per day in the foreseeable future. [2]

Not finding but financing is crucial

- Most executives agree that in order to maintain exploration they need oil prices to remain above $60 a barrel.[8]

Recent New Finds

Recent “new finds” are largely “blufs” to influence the market and politics (e.g. off shore drilling approval) - 2006 chevron Gulf of Mexico. The range of the amount -- from 3 billion to 15 billion (-- reserves of Exxon Mobil are around 14 billion barrels total) is comprised of no single field of more than 300 million barrels. An entire area of as much as 15 billion barrels with no "giant" over 1 Bn bar oil field is unusual. [4]. Mexican "huge oil discovery" announced in 2005, of a possible 10 billion barrels, which was quietly revised this year to around 43 million barrels, a downward revision of 99.57%.[4] - Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world - more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction. Three companies have been chosen to lead the way. Test drilling has already begun [6]     * 8-times as much oil as Saudi Arabia . 3-10 million barrels per day - September 2009, OIL GIANT BP SAYS IT HAS MADE A "GIANT" NEW OIL DISCOVERY IN ITS FIELDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH NET PRODUCTION EQUIVALENT TO MORE THAN 400,000 BARRELS OF OIL A DAY. TIBER, AT A TOTAL DEPTH OF ABOUT 35,055FT (10,685M), MAKING IT ONE OF THE DEEPEST WELLS DRILLED TO DATE. BP SHARES ROSE 4.3% [7] - Although they are substantial, the new finds do not match the giant fields discovered in the 1970s, like Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay, Ekofisk in the North Sea, or Cantarell in Mexico. They are also dwarfed by the last enormous discovery, the Kashagan field in the Caspian Sea, discovered in 2000 and estimated to hold over 20 billion barrels of oil.

HOWEVER

2009 is the year with the highest level of new discoveries since 2000. - Major discoveries have been reported in areas of the world such as Iraq, Australia, Israel, Iran, and Russia to name a few. [8] - In July 2009, Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) released the stunning news that it had found a "new" oil field in California,. The discovery was in a range from 150-250 million gross barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), Petrobras announced a large find off the coast of Brazil in the Santos Basin, The Guara discovery contains 1.1 to 2 billion BOE and will produce 120,000 barrels per day by 2012. Right next door is the Tupi Field that will produce 100,000 barrels a day in phase one by 2010.[9] - LAST YEAR, THE TEXAS BEHEMOTH LEASED 142 OFFSHORE EXPLORATION SITES, COMPARED WITH 12 IN THE TWO PREVIOUS YEARS.[10] - More than 200 oil discoveries have been reported so far in 2009 in dozens of countries. These discoveries, spanning five continents, are the result of hefty investments that began earlier in the decade when oil prices rose, and of new technologies that allow explorers to drill at greater depths and break tougher rocks. [11] 2009: During the first half of the year, oil companies already had reported discovering 10 billion barrels of new oil. [8].

BUT

BUT annual consumption today is 30 billion barrels and growing! The most impressive finds of the year, belonging to BP brings excitement back into the Gulf of Mexico and is estimated to hold between 4 and 6 billion barrels of oil and gas. Should that estimate hold true, that is enough to meet domestic consumption for over a year. [8]

Deeper and further

New finds are increasingly deep and a result of increased investments as a result of high oil price. With low oil prices, investments and thus new finds might stagnate. - the "oil window", which is 7500-15,000 feet. This is the depth range in which oil is formed. However, oil can migrate to much deeper depths after it is formed.“ [4] - new evidence supporting the abiotic theory for the origin of oil, which asserts oil is a natural product the Earth generates constantly[5]. Lost City is a hypothermal field some 2,100 feet below sea level that sits along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at the center of the Atlantic Ocean, noted for strange 90 to 200 foot white towers on the sea bottom. - JUST TWO DECADES AGO, THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS CALLED THE "DEAD SEA". BUT NOW IT IS AGAIN FRONT AND CENTER FOR PETROLEUM EXPLORERS.AS NEW TECHNOLOGIES HAVE ENABLED EXPLORATION IN THE DEEPEST RECESSES OF THE GULF, NEARLY A DOZEN DISCOVERIES, INCLUDING BP'S TIBER, HAVE BEEN MADE BENEATH NEARLY TWO MILES OF WATER. INDEED, "WE BELIEVE IT'S THE DEEPEST WELL EVER DRILLED BY THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY.“ [10] - TO DRILL EACH WELL COSTS ABOUT $200 MILLION, INDUSTRY EXECUTIVES SAID. AND A PROSPECT OFTEN REQUIRES SEVERAL WELLS, PLUS EXPENSIVE PIPELINES AND FLOATING FACILITIES. [10] . ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC AND CHEVRON CORP. ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN PRODUCING OIL FROM PERDIDO – IN MID-2010, A SECOND LOWER TERTIARY DISCOVERY -- PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA'S CHINOOK AND CASCADE PROSPECTS -- IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PRODUCING.

Where could new finds occur?

Three conditions must be present for oil reservoirs to form: a source rock rich in hydrocarbon material buried deep enough for subterranean heat to cook it into oil; a porous and permeable reservoir rock for it to accumulate in; and a cap rock (seal) or other mechanism that prevents it from escaping to the surface.[2] Although oil shales are found in many countries, the United States has the world's largest deposits.[2]. Known reserves of petroleum are typically estimated at around 190 km3 (1.2 trillion (short scale) barrels) without oil sands, or 595 km3 (3.74 trillion barrels) with oil sands. [2] - THE SANTOS BASIN OF BRAZIL IS THE ONLY OTHER ONE IN THE WORLD,". [10] OTHER RECENT FINDS IN UGANDA, KURDISTAN AND OFF THE COAST OF GHANA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE SEVERAL BILLION BARRELS OF OIL, WHILE THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BRAZIL CONTAIN "TENS OF BILLIONS OF BARRELS,". [10] offshore giantssuch as Tupi, Guara and Tiber demand high investments and ever-increasing technological abilities.Subsalt reservoirs such as Tupi were unknown in the twentieth century, mainly because the industrywas unable to probe them. Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques (example : DaQing, China ) will continue to play a major role in increasing the world's recoverable oil.[2]

New Finds Scenarios

Sources

[1] http://www.responsiblenergy.org/oil.asp
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum
[3] Shell energy scenarios 2050
[4] http://www.energybulletin.net/node/20140
[5] http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59991
[6] http://www.rense.com/general70/doro.htm
[7] http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8233504.stm
[8] http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/09/24/a-good-year-for-oil-discoveries/
[9] http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2009/New-Oil-Discoveries-You-Should-Know-OXY-BP-PBR0914.aspx
[10] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125189057895179241.html
[11] http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/24/business/energy-environment/24oil.html