Future of the European Union in 2030

Team Composition

• Arthur Danzi
• Gudmundur Kristjansson
  
• Mauricio Suzuki
  
• Sameer Agarwal
  
• Sri Hari Krishnan
  

Research Questions

EU & Europe Definitions - Mauricio

1. What is the definition of Europe?
2. What countries are part of the European Union?
3. What is the history of the European Union?
4. What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?
5. What is the euro zone?

Politics - GK

1. How is the European Union Governed?
2. What are the main bodies of the EU?
3. How is the European parliament elected?
4. How is the European parliament structured?
5. How do the countries work together?
6. How does the EU take decisions?
7. How does the EU tick?
8. How is the EU budget managed?
9. Are there any planned budget policy changes?
10. What is the main driver for the EU expansion?
11. Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?
12. Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?
13. What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?

Policy - GK

1. What are the Agriculture policies of the EU? - check if you agree GK
2. What are the Energy policies of the EU? - same here, M
3. What are the Infrastructure policies of the EU?
4. What are the Regional policies of the EU?
5. What are the Environment policies of the EU? - same here
6. What are the Educational policies of the EU?
7. What are the foreign policies of the EU?

Environment - Sri Hari

1. What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?

Climate change

Climate change is one of the gravest challenges facing humanity. The EU is working for a global agreement to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and is leading the way by taking bold action of its own. In a landmark decision in December 2008, EU leaders approved a comprehensive package of emission-cutting measures. The plan aims to reduce greenhouse gases at least 20% by 2020 (compared with 1990 levels), raise renewable energy's share of the market to 20% and cut overall energy consumption by 20% (compared with projected trends). Within the drive for more renewable energy, it was agreed that 10% of fuel for transport should come from biofuels, electricity or hydrogen.

Emissions trading

A cornerstone of the EU’s climate change strategy, the emissions trading system rewards companies that reduce their CO2 emissions and penalises those that exceed limits.

Introduced in 2005, the scheme takes in about 12,000 factories and plants responsible for about half the EU’s emissions of CO2, the main gas blamed for global warming.

Under the system, EU governments set limits on the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by energy-intensive industries like power generation and steel and cement makers. If these businesses want to emit more CO2 than their quota, they have to buy spare permits from more efficient companies.

In the future, more industries will be subject to quotas, including airlines and petrochemical companies. EU countries will also be able to offset emissions by buying credits from projects to reduce CO2 in non-EU countries.

Biodiversity

The EU has committed to stopping the decline of endangered species and habitats in the EU by 2010, but reaching that goal will require much effort. Policies and legislation are already in place to address the challenge, but efforts to implement them need to be replicated on a much larger scale. In particular, the EU wants to expand Natura 2000, a set of areas where plant and animal species and their habitats must be protected. It already includes more than 26,000 sites across the EU.

Environmental health

Noise, swimming water, rare species and emergency response –these are just some of the areas covered under the extensive body of environmental legislation that the EU has established over the decades. Under the laws, which are mainly aimed at establishing health-based standards for pollutants, EU countries are required to monitor many different pollutants and to take action if levels exceed safe limits.

In some of its latest efforts on this front, the EU moved in 2008 to set binding limits on emissions of fine particles known as PM2.5. Released by cars and trucks, these microscopic particles can cause respiratory diseases. Under the new law, which takes effect in 2011, EU countries will have to reduce exposure to fine particles in urban areas by an average 20% by 2020 (based on 2010 levels).

Sustainable development

Sustainable development has long been one of the overarching objectives of EU policy. EU leaders launched the first EU sustainable development strategy in 2001 and updated it in 2006 to tackle shortcomings and take account of new challenges.

Closely tied to climate change and energy policy, the revised plan stresses the importance of education, research and public funding to achieve sustainable production and consumption patterns.

Since then there have been significant efforts in terms of policy. Now the focus is on putting policy into practice. In 2009, the commission proposed a package of measures to promote eco-friendly products, including greater use of energy efficiency labels like those found on wash machines.

Source:Environment, europa.eu

1. Will the EU change its environmental focus in the next 20 years?

Economics - Sameer

1. What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?
2. How is monetary policy governed within the EU?
3. What can cause the instability of the Euro?
4. Will the EU change its Economic policy because of the financial crisis in 2007-10?
5. What is the energy profile of the EU?

Society - Arthur

1. Does European Union really bond its members together?
2. How do European inhabitants feel about EU?
3. What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?
4. What present of EU states are satisfied with being a member state?
5. How "European" are EU citizens and do they share a common identity?

Terrorism - Mauricio

1. What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?
2. How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU?
3. European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?

Demographics - Sameer

1. What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?
2. What are the main religions practiced in the EU?
3. What are the main languages spoken in the EU?
4. What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?
5. What is the level of immigration and emigration?
6. What are the main issues with changing religion makeup of Europe?
7. What will be the main issues with the ageing population of the western EU states?

Geopolitics - Sri Hari

1. Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members?
2. Enlargement of EU?
3. What is the EU's outlook towards full membership of the Balkans and Turkey?
4. Would EU disintegrate like the USSR?
5. Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?
6. In case that the EU will form a large economic block, what USA would do?
7. If Iceland will be the 29th member state, will it cause any friction between the EU and other application states?
8. How will EU and China relationship develop?
9. How will EU and India relationship develop?
10. How will EU and US relationship develop?
11. How will EU and North Africa relationship develop?
12. What role does Africa play for Europe?
13. What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?
14. Would Russia with its huge gas reserves would like to play a pivotal role in Europe?
15. How does the world (US, BRICS,etc.,) perceive the EU? Would they want a strong EU?

Infrastructure - Arthur

1. Does the EU need to focus on new infrastructure approaches?

Driving Forces

Political Driving Forces

1. World Unification
2. Threat of war
3. The Rise of BRIC Economies

Technological Driving Forces

1. Public attitude to science and technology
2. Mobility
3. Nanotechnology

Environmental Driving Forces

1. Greenhouse gases emissions trading affecting production in the EU
2. Scarcity of Water in the EU
3. Increasing need to clean energy

Economic Driving Forces

1. EU ambitions for economic growth, as expressed in the Lisbon Declaration.
2. Threat of total financial meltdown
3. European integration
4. European dependence on Russian Gas

Societal Driving Forces

1. EU view of itself – culturally diverse or seeking homogeneity – with the associated political implications
2. Increasing Mobility
3. Aging population
4. Changes in Religion buildup of Europe
5. Aging Europe

References

Scenario Reports

• NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary
• New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)
• European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)
• Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States
• Trends and drivers of change in the EU transport and logistics sector: Scenarios (pdf)

Economic Reports

• Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union

Presentations

• Conference "Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe"

News & Other Sources

• Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios
• Economic Problems of European Union
• Immigration Problems in EU
• Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?
• Q&A: EU enlargement
• About the European Union on Wikipedia

Interview Questions

1. What are the main political issues currently facing the European Union
2. What are the main political forces in the European Union
3. What will happen if Turkey is accepted as part of the EU?

Meeting Agenda

September 9, 2009 - 17:00 to 18:30
September 14, 2009 - 14:00 to 15:00