Difference between revisions of "Future of the European Union in 2030"
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# [[Threat of total financial meltdown]] | # [[Threat of total financial meltdown]] | ||
# [[European integration]] | # [[European integration]] | ||
# [[ | # [[European dependence on Russian Gas]] | ||
=== Societal Driving Forces === | === Societal Driving Forces === |
Revision as of 13:55, 9 September 2009
Team Composition
Introduction
Research Questions
EU & Europe Definitions
- What is the definition of Europe?
- What is the Euro zone?
- What is the history of the European Union?
- How is the European parliament elected?
- How is the European parliament structured?
Politics
- What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?
- Is Europe losing its importance?
- What role does Africa play for Europe?
- Is there a chance of a power shift from UK, DE, FR to a new country/region in Europe?
- What will happen if Turkey is accepted as part of the EU?
- What is the main driver for the expansion?
Policy
- How will EU fishing policy change over the next 20 years due to scarcity of fish?
- How will EU agriculture policy change over the next 20 years?
- Will high unemployment rate in western EU affect its policy towards a more free market system?
- Will high unemployment rate in western EU affect its policy towards labor laws?
- Will EU look beyond Europe for EU like cooperation?
Environment
- What is the key driver for environmental policy changes for EU the past 5 years?
- Will the EU change its environmental focus in the next 20 years?
Economics
- What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?
- How is monetary policy governed within the EU?
- What can cause the instability of the Euro?
- Will the EU change its Economic policy because of the financial crisis in 2007-10?
Society
- What bounds Europe together?
- How do European inhabitants feel about the creation of the EU?
- Will the large immigration numbers affect EU policy towards expansion?
- What present of EU states are satisfied with being a member state?
- How "European" are EU citizens and do they share a common identity?
Terrorism
- What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?
- How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements can influence the future of EU?
- European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?
Demographics
- What are the main demographic characteristics of the EU?
- What are the main issues with changing religion makeup of Europe?
- What will be the main issues with the ageing population of the western EU states?
Geopolitics
- What is the EU's outlook towards full membership of the Balkans and Turkey?
- Would EU disintegrate like the USSR?
- Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?
- In case that the EU will form a large economic block, what USA would do?
- If Iceland will be the 29th member state, will it cause any friction between the EU and other application states?
- How will EU and China relationship develop?
- How will EU and India relationship develop?
- How will EU and US relationship develop?
- How will EU and North Africa relationship develop?
- What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?
- Would Russia with its huge gas reserves would like to play a pivotal role in Europe?
- How does the world (US, BRICS,etc.,) perceive the EU? Would they want a strong EU?
Infrastructure
- Does the EU need to focus on new infrastructure approaches?
Systems Diagram
Driving Forces
Political Driving Forces
Technological Driving Forces
Environmental Driving Forces
- Greenhouse gases emissions trading affecting production in the EU
- Scarcity of Water in the EU
- Increasing need to clean energy
Economic Driving Forces
- EU ambitions for economic growth, as expressed in the Lisbon Declaration.
- Threat of total financial meltdown
- European integration
- European dependence on Russian Gas
Societal Driving Forces
- EU view of itself – culturally diverse or seeking homogeneity – with the associated political implications
- Increasing Mobility
- Aging population
- Changes in Religion buildup of Europe
- Aging Europe
Scenarios
References
Scenario Reports
- NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary
- New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)
- European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)
- Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States